The New York Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday, June 21, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MASN and YES.
Losers of seven of their last eight games, the Yankees try to even up their series with the Orioles on Saturday afternoon, which features Clarke Schmidt and Zach Eflin on the hill.
Find my Orioles vs Yankees prediction in my MLB betting preview for Saturday below.
My Orioles vs Yankees Prediction
- Orioles vs Yankees picks: Yankees moneyline (-166 | Play to -180)
My Orioles vs Yankees best bet is the Yankees to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Yankees Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | +140 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | -166 |
Orioles vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Zach Eflin (BAL) | Stat | RHP Clarke Schmidt (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | W-L | 3-3 |
| 0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 4.81 / 3.78 | ERA /xERA | 3.16/2.77 |
| 5.01 / 4.13 | FIP / xFIP | 3.54 / 4.08 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 12.1% | K-BB% | 14.2% |
| 42.9% | GB% | 33.7% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 105 | Location+ | 104 |
Tony Sartori's Orioles vs Yankees Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Eflin's Season to Forget
Zach Eflin is enduring one of the worst seasons of his career. Through 10 starts, Eflin has a 4.81 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are also concerning. The right-hander ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity, strikeout rate and barrel rate.
These struggles are likely to continue against New York, a team he has historically struggled against. Over his past two starts against the Yankees, Eflin is 0-1 with a 6.52 ERA and 2.07 WHIP.
Additionally, Eflin is backed by a fade-worthy bullpen. This season, Baltimore’s relief corps ranks 25th in ERA, 22nd in fielding independent pitching (FIP) and 20th in wins above replacement (WAR).
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Lead by the Pen
On the other hand, New York features one of the strongest bullpens in the league. Entering this matchup, the Yankees’ relievers rank in the top 12 in each of those three categories.
Not that the bullpen will be needed early, as Clarke Schmidt gets the start. The former first-round draft pick has started to live up to the hype over the past two seasons.
In 2024, Schmidt posted a 2.85 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. That success has carried into 2025, where the right-hander owns a 3.16 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through 11 starts.
His analytics are even more impressive and among the best in baseball. Schmidt ranks in the 82nd percentile or higher in expected ERA (xERA), xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Orioles vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
Not only does New York own the clear pitching advantage, but the gap at the plate may be even larger.
Boasting one of the top lineups in baseball, the Yankees rank in the top three in runs scored per game, on-base percentage (OBP) and OPS.
Meanwhile, Baltimore ranks in the bottom half of the league in each of those three categories. With the superior starter, bullpen and lineup, New York is the team to back on its home diamond.
Pick: Yankees moneyline (-166 | Play to -180)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm betting on the Yankees moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like New York to cover, but find more value in just taking the outright moneyline price.
Over/Under
I lean toward the Under, but I don't trust Eflin.
