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Tuesday’s MLB Over/Under: Corbin, D-backs take on Mike Trout-less Angels

Credit:

Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Patrick Corbin

Betting odds: Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Over/Under: 8
  • First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
  • Probable Pitchers: Felix Peña (1-3, 4.35 ERA) vs. Patrick Corbin (10-4, 3.18 ERA)

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 82-53-3, +23.40 units

Yesterday’s Result: Astros-Mariners Under 8, Cole vs. Hernandez (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


Surprisingly, ever since Mike Trout went down with a wrist injury at the beginning of the month, the Angels have averaged 4.83 runs per contest in 18 games without their two-time AL MVP in the lineup.

Don’t look for that unusual trend to continue, however, when the Halos begin a short two-game set in Arizona on Tuesday evening.

Much of that reasoning, other than the expected regression of their offense with Trout sidelined, has to do with their poor performance against left-handed pitching this season.

In fact, they rank second from the bottom in all of baseball in team batting average (.226) and on-base percentage (.296) with a southpaw on the hill.

Their opposing pitcher tonight, Corbin, is one of the better left-handers going in the National League today, so this seems like a matchup that could keep the Angels offense at bay.

Corbin has been enjoying an All-Star season in 2018 and looks to be in a groove right now, having delivered three straight quality starts entering tonight’s outing. He’s also amassed 24 strikeouts during this current run, spanning 20.1 innings.

Despite its struggles at the dish versus lefties, Los Angeles has managed to crank out the 11th-most homers in that department with 42.

Even so, it’s going to be tough to go yard off Corbin, who typically fares better when working from home at Chase Field — his ERA there for his career (3.49) is nearly a full run better than it is on the road (4.46).

In addition, his career 0.88 HR/9 mark in Arizona could be of use against this slugging batting order, as that easily bests the 1.19 HR/9 he’s allowed in his road starts.

It also may be helpful that backup catcher Jeff Mathis will be starting behind the plate for the D-backs in this one.

Corbin has posted an outstanding 1.87 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his 10 starts pitching to the 14-year veteran this season, and aside from that, Mathis is a total dead bat, clocking in with his usual batting average that is just above the Mendoza Line (.218).


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As for the other starter on the bump in this series opener, I have to say I’m becoming a fan of Peña.

I had an under in one of his starts a couple of weeks ago, in which he almost kept up with Corey Kluber in Cleveland, and while he was ultimately unsuccessful in that regard, he continued a striking trend that has stood out thus far in his young career.

The 28-year-old right-hander has made four starts on the road, allowing just four runs (three earned) combined in those outings. That’s good for a microscopic 1.31 ERA, and opponents are hitting just .191 off Peña when he’s pitching away from home.

By contrast, he’s registered a dismal 6.52 ERA in his six starts (and two relief appearances) at the Big A.

Peña is also trending up, as ever since getting absolutely bombed by the Mariners for seven runs in just one-third of an inning at the end of July, he’s compiled a 2.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .175 BAA in three starts since.

With Pena having hit rock bottom so recently, I don’t envision him ending the roll he’s on and at least provides a decent showing here. If Corbin serves up his usual home cooking, we’re in business.

Play: UNDER 8 (-105)

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