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Rockies-Dodgers Betting Preview: Gray and Kershaw Can Neutralize Coors Field

Sep 07, 2018 2:00 PM EDT

Dodgers at Rockies Betting Odds

  • Dodgers moneyline: -146 (Clayton Kershaw)
  • Rockies moneyline: +136 (Jon Gray)
  • Over/Under: 9.5
  • First Pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET

>> All odds as of Thursday Night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets


The Dodgers visit the Rockies this weekend for a big three-game set that could play a huge part in determining the NL West champion.

The Rockies currently hold a 1.5-game lead over the Dodgers, and both teams will have their best pitcher on the mound to kick off the series as LA’s Clayton Kershaw takes on Jon Gray.

Gray got off to a rough start this season, and he hit rock bottom on June 30, when he was sent to Triple-A to work through his slump. Since returning from that short trip to Albuquerque, however, Gray has been terrific.

Since re-joining the Rockies, Gray sports a 3.64 ERA and has held opponents to a .262 OBP in 61.1 innings.

Another reason I believe in Gray in this spot is that his splits suggest he’s been a better pitcher at home than on the road. That is rare for a pitcher whose home park is Coors Field.

In 221.1 career innings at Coors Field, Gray has a .313 wOBA against, which is better than his career mark on the road. His xFIP (a regressed version of Fielding Independent Pitching) at Coors Field is 3.20 and beats his 3.74 xFIP away from home.

Perhaps most impressive is that Gray’s HR/9 at home (0.98) is a smidge better than it is outside of Coors (1.00).

The Rockies will need Gray on his game because he’s got the unenviable task of taking on Clayton Kershaw, who has been dominant over his last seven games.

In his last 49.2 innings pitched, the three-time Cy Young Award Winner owns a 1.99 ERA, .214 OBP against and has walked just three batters.

So we’ve got two red-hot pitchers going at it in a pivotal game, but it just happens to take place at the most renowned hitter-friendly park in the league.

I trust these two pitchers, but I also really think that the magnitude of this game will play a part in keeping the score down. I’ve said this before and I truly believe it, having been a part of a few races as tight as this one.

When two teams are fighting for a playoff spot, runs will be at a premium. I don’t see this one being a slugfest and think the fact that this game takes place at Coors provides some value on the total.

Grab the under 9.5 and hope these two pitchers stay in form.

Credit:

Richard Mackson, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Clayton Kershaw

Follow Paul Lo Duca on Twitter
@paulloduca16

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