Wednesday’s MLB Over/Under: Matt Harvey Faces Team That Nearly Acquired Him
Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Matt Harvey (32) prepares to pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers in the second inning at Great American Ball Park.
Betting odds: Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
- Over/Under: 9
- First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Probable Pitchers: Freddy Peralta (6-4, 4.02 ERA) vs. Matt Harvey (6-7, 4.77 ERA)
Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 87-56-3, +25 units
Yesterday’s Result: Tigers-Royals Under 9, Boyd vs. Junis (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
Nice win last night — by a half-run, once again — and not only does that extend the streak to four, it also lifts me to a season-high 31 games above the .500 mark. Let’s just keep the line moving on this Wednesday.
It will be quite a unique scenario for Harvey, who gets set to face the team that was close to acquiring him via trade less than a week ago.
In an effort to beef up their starting pitching, Milwaukee claimed the Cincinnati right-hander on waivers, but couldn’t work out a deal with the division-rival Reds, who decided to hold on to the former All-Star and keep him as part of their rebuilding effort.
So, that puts the former Mets ace in a very interesting position, taking on a team that he knows wanted him but was unwilling to part with any notable young talent in order to obtain him.
Harvey has been solid since being jettisoned from New York to Cincinnati earlier this season. He’s made 18 starts, going 6-5 with a respectable 4.14 ERA, as opponents have hit just .255 off the 2010 first-round pick.
That’s significant because it represents Harvey’s lowest opponent batting average since 2015, his last year of relevancy with the Mets, a sign that he’s getting closer to his old form.
During his tenure with the Reds, Harvey has been even stingier when toeing the rubber at Great American Ball Park. Although it’s known as a hitter’s park, the 29-year-old is 4-1 in eight starts there while posting a nifty 3.94 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and .199 BAA. He’s been consistent in front of Reds faithful as well, limiting opponents to two runs or fewer in all but two of his home starts.
Harvey appears to be in a nice rhythm at the moment, having allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last three starts. He also has the added benefit now of knowing he’s going to be sticking in one place, rather than pitching with uncertainty, as was the case leading up to Friday’s waiver trade deadline.
Harvey’s counterpart, Peralta, appears to be in a groove as well. The 22-year-old has enjoyed a nice rookie campaign up to this point.
Despite a couple of rocky starts over the past couple of months, Peralta has settled in again, entering tonight’s outing having notched three quality starts in his last four tries.
One of those came in his last turn in the rotation, when he blanked the Reds over seven shutout innings that saw him yield only five baserunners (three hits, two walks) while striking out seven. Peralta also faced the Reds on July 1, holding them to three runs in five innings.
Overall, I think Peralta is an intriguing youngster who has the potential to be an upper-rotation pitcher for years to come. On the season, he’s recorded 86 strikeouts in 69.1 innings — a testament to how good his stuff is — and I believe he can keep ascending.
The main thing to like about this under is that it’s a matchup of two guys capable of a shutout performance. With an over/under line as high as 9, one such outing could be all the difference.
Based on the current juice, you’ll want to wait to see if the line touches 9.5. Even if that doesn’t happen, I’m still on this under at 9.
Play: UNDER 9/9.5