Blue Jays vs Dodgers Prediction | MLB Odds, Picks (July 24)
Jamie Sabau/Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Berrios.
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+105 | 9 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -195 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -125 | 9 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +165 |
The Dodgers have won four of six behind one of the hottest offenses in baseball, but their pitching may let them down in an interleague matchup on Monday against the Blue Jays.
With Michael Grove on the hill, can L.A. muster up enough against Jose Berrios?
Is the value on the short road underdog?
Let's get into how to bet on Jays vs. Dodgers in our preview and prediction.
Toronto Blue Jays
It's often an arduous task to bet on Berrios, but it's been slightly more tolerable in 2023. The right-hander has limited the catastrophic outings to post a 3.39 ERA, and so far in July he has allowed just three earned runs in 18 1/3 innings.
Walks have been an issue at times, but prior to walking four in his last outing he averaged one free pass in his previous four starts.
Berrios' strikeout rate is back up to 23.4% this season after sitting under 20% last season, which is a great sign. His ground ball rate is also a beefy 45.9%, which puts him about the league average and would be a career best. I recognize that his expected ERA is up at 4.59, so many may not have faith in Berrios, but I think we're looking at a pitcher with a pretty decent profile here.
His hard-hit rate is 35.1%, which is his lowest in four years, and his barrel rate is a palatable 8.7%. He hasn't been great, but I have seen much worse versions of Berrios.
As for this offense, it's been more of the same. Toronto ranks sixth in wRC+ over the last two weeks and has walked in 10.2% of plate appearances while striking out in just 21.3%.
This team has done most of its damage with contact, hitting .281 with a meek .149 Isolated Power during that time.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Grove is sort of the opposite of Berrios. His expected stats would point to him deserving better than a 6.40 ERA, but there is plenty to hate about the way he's thrown the ball.
Grove's xERA stands at 5.17, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's been even an average pitcher. He owns a 42.1% hard-hit rate with a high .277 expected batting average and .468 xSLG.
His 8.5% barrel rate isn't the worst, but together with a below-average strikeout rate and poor batted-ball numbers it's hard to say the right-hander has deserved anything other than the poor results he's seen.
The 26-year-old has also pitched to an alarming 31.1% line drive rate, which makes his somewhat tolerable 40.9% ground ball rate look like a moot point.
The Dodgers have been looking a lot like the Dodgers at the plate over the last couple of weeks with a 133 wRC+. That's been driven by a sky-high 12.6% walk rate and just a 20% strikeout rate. This team has now scored 52 runs in the last six games, torching some pretty good pitchers on the Rangers and Orioles.
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Betting Pick
There seems to be no stopping this Dodgers offense right now, but I'm a bit concerned with Grove on the hill. This line screams Jays to me, and I think Berrios has been a much better pitcher than his xERA would indicate.
He's been far from perfect, or even good, but he is better than Grove and should win in a battle between two very comparable offenses.
Pick: Blue Jays ML |
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