Blue Jays vs. Guardians Odds & Picks: Why to Bet the Over in Friday’s Game
Rob Tringali / SportsChrome / Getty Images. Pictured: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays.
- The Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Guardians face off Friday in the Land.
- Both teams are bringing ace pitchers to the mound and Nick Shlain sees value on tonight's over/under (6.5 runs).
- He breaks down the game and his betting pick below.
Editor’s note: Friday’s game between the Blue Jays and Guardians has been postponed because of inclement weather.
Blue Jays vs. Guardians Odds
|Blue Jays Odds||-140|
|Over/Under||6.5 (-120 / +100)|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Toronto Blue Jays are off to a good start this year at 16-11, but their star-studded lineup isn’t quite living up to expectations so far as they’re 18th in all of baseball in runs scored entering play Friday.
The Cleveland Guardians are 12-13, but only 2.5 games back from the leader in the American League Central division. The Guardians have been carried by their offense as they’re eighth in baseball in runs scored despite playing two fewer games than Toronto.
We have a great pitching matchup in this one as former Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber takes on Kevin Gausman, who had a major breakout last season before signing a big contract with the Blue Jays.
Which offense will do enough to win against the other team’s ace pitcher?
Can Toronto’s Righties Find Success?
Teoscar Hernández is close to returning to the Blue Jays lineup from an oblique injury that has sidelined him for about a week. His availability will be something to watch in the lead up to game time.
Bieber is a great pitcher, so no offense really matches up well with him, but there might be one edge for Toronto. Since the start of last year, Bieber has a 27% Strikeout Percentage against right-handed hitters compared to 35% against left-handed hitters.
Even if Hernandez misses this game, the Blue Jays’ offense has plenty of right-handed power with George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Guardians Can Eke Out Runs
Gausman has been great this year. His ERA is 2.27, but his 0.50 FIP and 1.61 xFIP are even better. He’s also worked deep into games throwing 31.2 innings in five starts.
Still, the Guardians offense has scored runs all year so far and they’re at home. This is kind of a scrappy and patient offense, so they can give anybody trouble, though it might not even matter if Gausman has his best stuff for this game.
Blue Jays-Guardians Pick
While this is a matchup of two ace pitchers, I actually like the over here. You can get the over 6.5 at -105 on DraftKings and I would bet it up to -110. Both of these offenses are solid.
The Blue Jays could be getting Hernández back here and the Guardians are at home. The model I use has the projected total for this game at 8.14 runs, which is well above the threshold for a recommended bet.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-105)
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