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The Cleveland Guardians host the Tampa Bay Rays on October 16, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on TBS.
The Rays are favored by -116 on the moneyline and by +164 on the run line. The Guardians are -102 on the moneyline and -200 on the run line. The total is set at 6.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rays vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rays vs Guardians Predictions, Picks
- Rays vs Guardians Picks: Guardians ML (-102), Rays Over 6.5 Ks (-120)
My Rays vs Guardians best bets are on Cleveland to win outright and the Tampa Bay pitchers to strike out seven batters or more. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Rays vs Guardians Odds
- Rays vs Guardians moneyline: Rays -116, Guardians -102
- Rays vs Guardians over/under: 6.5 (-108o / -112u)
- Rays vs Guardians spread: Rays -1.5 (+164), Guardians +1.5 (-200)
Rays vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| Nick Martinez (RHP, TB) | Stat | Daniel Espino (RHP, CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 15-6 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 2.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 3.10 / 3.97 | ERA / xERA | 4.11 / 2.90 |
| 3.96 / 4.47 | FIP / xFIP | 3.75 / 2.69 |
| 11.5 | K-BB% | 28.6 |
| 35.5 | GB% | 39.4 |
| .265 | BABIP | .500 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 110 |
| 107 | Location+ | 104 |
Rays vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
The Rays have their backs against the wall and turn to Nick Martinez to hopefully work his magic again. Martinez went 3 2/3 innings against the Yankees in his first postseason start, giving up two runs on five hits.
He's a pitch-to-contact righty who throws a lot of offspeed stuff (30% changeup usage last start) while bringing in fastball variation behind it. He throws a sinker, a cutter, and a four-seamer. He can't go out there and blow an opposing lineup away, so the goal is ground balls and weak contact, letting the defense go to work.
Martinez's strikeout prop is set at 2.5 with +108 on the over (DraftKings). That tells you the expectation tonight. The initial outs line was 12.5, with juice (-149) on the under. The Rays will be happy to get four innings from him, then bring in the bullpen to mix up what the Guardians are seeing in this very important game from Tampa.
If they can even the series, they'll be feeling pretty good with two of the final three games at home.
Totals so far in Rays postseason games: 1, 7, 7, 10, 4, 5.
We have the low 6.5-run total, so the Rays have played half their games above that and half below.
The Guardians are going with a bullpen game. They've used a lot of Cade Smith, Daniel Espino, Shawn Armstrong, Hunter Gaddis, and Erik Sabrowski out of the pen. It's a good mix of lefties and righties, and these guys have been sitting dudes down.
Cleveland's pitching staff has a 36% K% this postseason. The Rays' postseason K% is 22%, still very strong, but up several points from their regular-season tally.
I'm seeing some headaches for the Rays hitters tonight. They are a tough lineup to sit down, and they cause some havoc, but the Cleveland bullpen is carrying them right now, and I think you'll see a low number for Tampa tonight. The Guardians can get the matchups they want tonight, which benefits them.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
Cleveland has seen Nick Martinez twice this year for 13 innings. They have just seven hits and have been held scoreless.
They have an effective bullpen that leans right-handed. I think we'll see some Ian Seymour tonight, but it should be 6+ innings of right-handed arms for Tampa Bay.
That's good news for their two young guys, Chase DeLauterand Travis Bazzana, who had nice seasons against right-handed pitching. DeLauter posted an .806 OPS against righties, while Bazzana was better at .844.
However, the splits on Jose Ramirez are important to note. J-Ram had just a .619 OPS against righties this year. He's a switch hitter who has always hit for more power from the right side of the plate.
He was still always very good from the left side, but we saw some signs of age this year in that particular batter's box.
Rays vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
I like Cleveland's pitching better tonight. These bullpen games have worked wonders for them so far; they have so many guys who can come in and get big strikeouts. It's an impressive pitching staff.
I'm never feeling very confident about Nick Martinez. Even though he had a ton of success this year and didn't allow a run in either start against Cleveland, his 15% K% can get him into trouble.
My hitter pick in this game is Bazzana. He did well against right-handed pitchers like Martinez this year with a .440 xwOBA in my "matchups model". His swing seems to fit Martinez's approach well, and he'll see some extra right-handers even after N-Mart is out.
I like a couple of bets tonight. The first one is Rays Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120). They're going to see some elite pitching out of that bullpen as the Guardians throw everything at them to get up 3-1 in the series.
I'm also leaning toward the Cleveland side. They're the home team and just -102 on the moneyline. I think we're heading toward a Milwaukee vs. Cleveland World Series. Not exactly the sexiest matchup, but it's a good one for old-school baseball fans.
Guardians bullpen gets it done, the young Cleveland lefties do some damage, and we head back to Tampa with the Rays in a 3-1 hole!
Picks:
- Guardians Moneyline (-102, FanDuel)
- Rays Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120, DraftKings)
