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The Cleveland Guardians host the Tampa Bay Rays on October 18, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 5:00 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on TBS.
The Rays are favored by -132 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The Guardians are +112 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 6.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rays vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rays vs Guardians Prediction
- Rays vs Guardians Pick: Under 6.5 (Play to -110)
My Rays vs Guardians best bet is Under 6.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Guardians Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 6.5 -100o / -122u | -132 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 6.5 -100o / -122u | +112 |
- Rays vs Guardians moneyline: Rays -132, Guardians +112
- Rays vs Guardians over/under: 6.5 (-100o / -122u)
- Rays vs Guardians spread: Rays -1.5 (+146), Guardians +1.5 (-176)
Rays vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| Drew Rasmussen (RHP, TBR) | Stat | Parker Messick (LHP, CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 16-5 | W-L | 12-9 |
| 5.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.9 |
| 2.67/3.05 | ERA / xERA | 2.56/3.13 |
| 2.81/3.21 | FIP / xFIP | 3.07/3.36 |
| 21.2% | K-BB% | 19.3% |
| 43.9% | GB% | 44.3% |
| .251 | BABIP | .273 |
| 110 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 106 | Location+ | 106 |
Rays vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
The Tampa Bay Rays turn back to right-hander Drew Rasmussen in this pivotal Game 5, and he should serve as a good candidate to back. One of the most consistently dominant pitchers in the AL over the past few years, Rasmussen is coming off his best season.
A likely AL Cy Young finalist, the right-hander finished 2026 with a 16-5 record, a 2.67 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. His underlying metrics were equally impressive.
Entering the postseason, Rasmussen ranks in the top third of the league in xERA, xBA, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. This success has continued into the postseason.
Through two playoff starts, Rasmussen is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
A pitching duel could be in store, given that left-hander Parker Messick takes the mound for the Cleveland Guardians. A second-round draft pick in 2022, Messick has been fantastic since his call-up last year.
Through 39 big league starts, the southpaw is 15-10 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. Like Rasmussen, his analytics are equally impressive.
Entering this matchup, Messick ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in xERA, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. He has also dominated the Rays.
Over five career meetings, Messick owns a 0.86 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP.
Rays vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
From another perspective, the current Tampa Bay roster owns a mere .228 batting average, .261 slugging percentage, and .240 wOBA through 97 combined plate appearances against Messick. Meanwhile, this current Guardians roster has fared even worse against Rasmussen.
In 98 combined plate appearances against the right-hander, Cleveland owns a .196 batting average, .283 slugging percentage and .232 wOBA. Game 5 is likely to be the turning point in this series, and both teams are trotting out their best arms to get it done in what will likely be a low-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 6.5 (Play to -110)
