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Tonight is Game 4 of the National League Championship Series, and I’ve got two bangers for this Brewers vs. Dodgers matchup.
Read on for my 2 MLB Home Run Picks Today.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
In the table below, you'll find each of Grant Neiffer's top home run prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:00 PM | |
| 8:00 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Brewers vs Dodgers Prediction, Pick
This matchup isn't an easy one overall, but these odds are a bit too high.
Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow is still a good pitcher, but he's allowed a massive 45.8% fly-ball rate to righties this season, with a HR/9 that is close to 1.00.
I have him rating out as close to an average matchup for homers, and Jackson Chourio is a good home-run hitter.
I have the true odds for the Brewers LF at around +520.
Pick: Jackson Chourio Home Run
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Brewers vs Dodgers Prediction, Pick
This matchup isn't great, but these odds more than make up for it.
Brewers SP Dustin May has been a tough matchup for righty power this season (0.74 HR/9), but with a 7.5% HR/FB rate to go along with a 38% fly-ball rate and 41% hard-contact rate, he's due for some heavy negative regression.
I have May projected as a matchup that is slightly below average for HRs, which makes these odds way too high.
I have the true odds for Teoscar Hernandez at around +600.
Pick: Teoscar Hernandez Home Run
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