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Blue Jays vs Pirates MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Why Toronto Will Finish the Series Sweep in Pittsburgh (Sunday, September 4)

Blue Jays vs Pirates MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Why Toronto Will Finish the Series Sweep in Pittsburgh (Sunday, September 4) article feature image
Credit:

Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images. Pictured: George Springer.

  • The Blue Jays look to finish off a series sweep of the Pirates on the road in Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon.
  • Pittsburgh will send JT Brubaker to the mound while Toronto will counter with Ross Stripling.
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Blue Jays vs. Pirates Odds

Blue Jays Odds -200
Pirates Odds +170
Over/Under 8 (-110/-110)
Time 12:05 p.m. ET
TV Peacock
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The NL Central‘s Pittsburgh Pirates host the AL East‘s Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday afternoon in the final matchup of a three-game series. Toronto has won and covered the run line in each of the first two matchups of this series.

Will we get another Blue Jays victory, or can the Pirates grab a win as heavy home underdogs?

Stripling and the Blue Jays Should Stay Hot

The Toronto Blue Jays enter this game in good form, winning 11 of their last 16 games (69%) and covering the run line in eight of those 11 victories (73%). We should expect these trends to continue with right-hander Ross Stripling slated to take the mound this afternoon.

Through 26 pitching appearances this season, Stripling is 6-4 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Not only has he been great all season, but Stripling enters this game in outstanding form.

Over his last seven starts, he is 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. While Stripling has only faced the Pirates intermittently over the past five seasons, he has been successful in those outings. Over his last six pitching appearances against the Pirates, he is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

One of the better bullpens in baseball looms behind Stripling as well. Since August 1st, Toronto’s relief pitching ranks eighth in the league in ERA, 11th in WHIP, 12th in batting average, and 13th in wOBA.


Pirates Slumping Down the Stretch

While Toronto enters this series in good form, the Pittsburgh Pirates have little momentum going for them as they have lost 17 of their last 21 games (81%). Of those 17 losses, the Pirates have failed to cover the run line 15 times (88%). We should expect these trends to continue with right-hander JT Brubaker slated to take the mound for Pittsburgh.

Through 24 starts this season, Brubaker is 3-11 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. While those numbers are poor, his metrics are just as troubling.

This year, Brubaker possesses a .322 xwOBA, .252 xBA, and .403 xSLG. These poor metrics have translated into some awful outings for Brubaker recently. Over his last five starts, he is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.

To make matters worse for Pirates fans, the bullpen behind him hasn’t been much better. Since August 1st, the Pirates’ relief pitching ranks just 23rd in the league in ERA, 24th in WHIP, and 19th in FIP.

Additionally, this Pirates lineup may struggle to get runs across the plate against the right-hander Stripling. When facing right-handed pitchers, Pittsburgh ranks just 24th in the league in BA, 26th in SLG, 27th in OPS, and 27th in wOBA since the beginning of August.

Blue Jays-Pirates Pick

The Blue Jays boast the better starting pitcher, bullpen, and lineup in this matchup. While backing Toronto is certainly a chalky pick, the Blue Jays have been on a great streak of covering the run line as a favorite. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has struggled to cover the run line as an underdog.

Expect the Blue Jays to convincingly complete the series sweep today.

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-120) | Play up to (-130)

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