The Philadelphia Phillies host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 2, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Phillies are favored by -135 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are +110 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 10.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Phillies Prediction
- Pirates vs Phillies Pick: Pirates Moneyline (+110) / Over 10 (-125)
My Pirates vs Phillies best bet is on Pittsburgh to win outright and the over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Phillies Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 10.5 -105o / -115u | +110 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 10.5 -105o / -115u | -135 |
- Pirates vs Phillies moneyline: Pirates +110, Phillies -130
- Pirates vs Phillies over/under: 10.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Pirates vs Phillies spread: Pirates +1.5 (-185), Phillies -1.5 (+150)
Pirates vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| Jared Jones (RHP, PIT) | Stat | Alan Rangel (RHP, PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 5.76 / 4.81 | ERA / xERA | 4.50 / 2.96 |
| 4.79 / 4.00 | FIP / xFIP | 2.78 / 3.95 |
| 14.5 | K-BB% | 21.6 |
| 44.0 | GB% | 32.4 |
| .310 | BABIP | .324 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 105 | Location+ | 98 |
Pirates vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
I’ve been a bit more aggressive pushing edges recently because halfway through the season, small sample sizes can no longer be brushed off, and it seems as if the market has either been slow or reticent to react to certain traits.
One of those is the Pittsburgh offense.
They’re good. Not just better. Like, really good.
How does a 117 wRC+ against RHP sound?
There’s been some shuffling of the lineup since the start of the season, so how about their standard or projected lineup against RHP now averaging a 135 wRC+ against pitchers from that side and a 133 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall?
How about the only batter in the projected lineup below a 100 wRC+ in either case is Brandon Lowe’s 79 wRC+ over the last month?
Esmerlyn Valdez has been incredibly destructive going into Wednesday night with a 209 wRC+ and .458 ISO in 54 plate appearances.
In contrast, the regular Philadelphia lineup (in which I project Rafael Marchan for the midweek day game after night game) averages an 87 wRC+ against RHP with just three batters above 100: Kyle Schwarber (150), Bryce Harper (181) and Brandon Marsh (150).
Those three have been carrying this offense. If they don’t do it, it probably doesn’t get done, although Trea Turner has finally begun making a little bit of noise lately. The problem may be that he’s the only other batter in this lineup who has a track record without concern for aging curves (Realmuto).
As I have been throughout the series, I’m crediting the Pirates with a large 20+ point wRC+ edge.
They are, right now, on their way to their second loss in the first three games of this series, but it hasn’t been the offense. It’s their star pitchers like Braxton Ashcraft and Paul Skenes that have let them down. In fact, they’ve cut a six-run deficit down to two as I’m writing this.
Considering Thursday’s pitchers, Jared Jones is bigger on talent than results, just six starts back from Tommy John surgery that cost him nearly a season and a half.
He’s been pitching to around four and a quarter overall (4.04 SIERA, 4.77 xERA, 4.10 Bot ERA, 109 Pitching+), much better than his 5.26 ERA, which has a lot to do with a .310 BABIP, 65.5 LOB%, and five of seven barrels leaving the yard.
Opposing him, Alan Rangel, well… he’s just a guy. Twenty-eight years old with only 23 major league innings to his name and half of those in June because Taijuan Walker and Andrew Painter were so bad.
You can see via BARTOLO (hopefully embedded below this time), Rangel’s average projection is 4.84, more than half a run worse than Jones’s underlying metrics.
I cede that the Phillies certainly have the better bullpen, whether it’s by last 30-day estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA averages of 3.56 to 4.28) or BARTOLO ratings (again, hopefully above, but if not, still available for subscribers), where Philadelphia is ranked 3rd (3.45 wFIP) to Pittsburgh’s 21st (4.26 wFIP).
That doesn’t make up for all the other areas where the Pirates edge the Phillies on Thursday, including 8 FRV and 1 BRR via projected lineups.
Pirates vs Phillies Pick, Betting Analysis
Despite the bullpen issues, I’m endorsing the full game +110 price on the Pirates because it’s much better than their -114 F5 line.
But we’re not done yet.
Also, via BARTOLO, you may see that this game is forecast to begin at 100 degrees, and it’s only supposed to get hotter from there.
BARTOLO is also suggesting a greater than 15% boost from that forecast, which we can add to a park run environment already 4% above average and an umpire an additional 0.5% above average.
That’s, well, not quite Coors, but just about Sacramento territory.
Most sites are already up to 10 on this total, and in that case I’d still play to win 0.5u, but FanDuel is still floating a 9.5 at -124, where I’d risk a full unit.
Picks: Pirates +110, 0.5u (Bet to +105), Over 9.5 (-124), 1u (Bet through 10)
