The Milwaukee Brewers host the Cincinnati Reds on July 2, 2026. The first pitch at American Family Field is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CINR.
The Brewers are favored by -190 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +160 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Reds vs. Brewers prediction below, along with probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Reds vs Brewers Prediction
Reds vs Brewers Picks:
- Jacob Misiorowski Over 9.5 Strikeouts (+100 or Better)
- Chase Burns Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+110 or Better)
Reds vs Brewers Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 7 -115o / -105u | +160 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 7 -115o / -105u | -190 |
Reds vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| Chase Burns (RHP, CIN) | Stat | Jacob Misiorowski (RHP, MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-1 | W-L | 9-3 |
| 2.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.3 |
| 2.36 / 2.95 | ERA / xERA | 1.45 / 2.11 |
| 3.17 / 3.21 | FIP / xFIP | 1.85 / 2.19 |
| 22.6% | K-BB% | 31.6% |
| 36.8% | GB% | 46.7% |
| .274 | BABIP | .230 |
| 113 | Stuff+ | 126 |
| 101 | Location+ | 100 |
Reds vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview
Here’s our insane number of the day.
Jacob Misiorowski has a 41.3 K% at home this season. Part of that is because 5% to 15%, depending upon whether we’re talking about right- or left-handed batters or whether the roof is open or closed.
Ever notice how the guys who leave the Brewers see their strikeout rates drastically decline: Freddy Peralta, Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams.
Considering the Brewers have kept the roof open for this series with temperatures near 90, I’m assuming they’ll keep it open once again for temperatures in the low 90s in the forecast for Thursday.
I project Misiorowski for about an 11-12% boost on Thursday from the park with a little weather mixed in, but that’s not where it ends.
Dan Merzel is scheduled to be behind the plate for this game, and he generally adds an additional 6% boost to strikeouts.
If you want another ridiculous number, Misiorowski has struck out 47.9% of LHBs faced at home this year.
The Reds have been playing more LHBs (up to five) in recent weeks with TJ Friedl back and Edwin Arroyo getting starts along with Elly De La Cruz, J.J. Bleday and Nathaniel Lowe.
Misiorowski has a reverse split, but still dominates RHBs and is striking out 33.7% of them at home too.
The Reds? They also strike out a lot. Among the projected nine, Bleday (19.7%) is the only one below 20% this year against RHP. The lineup averages 24.3%.
There’s a guy pitching for the other team who’s pretty good too. Chase Burns has struck out 33% of LHBs this year and projects to see 15 of 23 batters from that side of the plate on Thursday with a weighted strikeout average of 22.7% against RHP.
Sal Frelick (8.2%) and William Contreras (11.8%) are the only two below 21%.
He also projects to gain a nearly 20% boost in park/umpire/weather.
Reds vs Brewers Pick, Betting Analysis
I played both strikeout props in Wednesday’s game and split (Drohan had 15 whiffs, Abbott 9).
I’m going to play both again, partially because I really want to watch this matchup with an added rooting interest, and what better than to root for these two phenoms to mow batters down?
I think the Miz can get to double digits and would rather take the plus-money at 9.5 offered at DraftKings than the juiced 8.5 on FanDuel, as well as Burns’ 7.5 plus-money at DK vs juiced 6.5.
Yes, I absolutely realize how square this sounds, but it's also going to be a lot of fun afternoon in the air conditioning rooting for strikeouts and profiting if we hit at least one.
Picks:
- Jacob Misiorowski Over 9.5 Strikeouts (+100 or Better)
- Chase Burns Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+110 or Better)
