The Milwaukee Brewers (28-28) host the Boston Red Sox (27-30) on Wednesday, May 28, 2025. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Brewers and Red Sox will conclude their three-game set with a Wednesday matinee. The Brewers have their ace, Freddy Peralta, on the mound and enter as -155 moneyline favorites against Brayan Bello and the Sox.
Find my Red Sox vs Brewers prediction for Wednesday below.
Red Sox vs Brewers Prediction and Pick
- Red Sox vs Brewers picks: Brewers -1.5 (play to -105)
My Red Sox vs Brewers best bet is on the Brewers to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Brewers Odds, Run Line and Total
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -166 | 8 -101 / -115 | +130 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8 -101 / -115 | -155 |
Red Sox vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | Stat | Freddy Peralta (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 5-3 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 4.08/5.51 | ERA /xERA | 2.55/3.49 |
| 4.88/4.38 | FIP / xFIP | 3.89/4.13 |
| 1.70 | WHIP | 1.12 |
| 1.4 | K-BB% | 2.6 |
| 52.7% | GB% | 35.8% |
| 90 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 100 | Location+ | 101 |
Sean Paul’s Red Sox vs Brewers Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
There’s no other way to categorize the Red Sox season than a total nightmare. Many tabbed Boston as a legitimate contender in the American League East, but that hype has slowly faded.
Starting pitcher Brayan Bello is maybe the biggest disappointment. He finished last year strong, but he’s failed to carry that momentum to 2025.
Bello enters Wednesday’s outing with a 4.08 ERA. It’ll only get worse from here, as Bello’s 5.51 xERA and 4.88 FIP signal regression.
He's also failed to reach five full innings in his last four outings. He allowed more than two runs in just one of the four, but the lack of length is a total killer for a Red Sox bullpen that’s been taxed all year.
I’m also concerned about Boston’s offense moving forward.
Alex Bregman was playing like a legitimate MVP candidate prior to his quad injury. Now, the Red Sox will need Rafael Devers to continue posting absurd numbers, while needing the youngsters — Kristian Campbell and Wilyer Abreu — to end their lengthy slumps.
Several of the Red Sox hitters are automatic outs right now. Campbell is hitting .125 in his last 15 games, Trevor Story is hitting .154, Ceddanne Rafaela is hitting .152 and Abreu is hitting .224.
A team with a plethora of struggling hitters versus an All-Star level starter? That's a recipe for disaster.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
The Brewers will give their ace, Freddy Peralta, the ball in the series finale.
Peralta has pitched to a 2.55 ERA in 60 innings over 11 starts. If Peralta maintains his 2.55 ERA, it could be his best by a wide margin. That feels unlikely as his 3.49 xERA and 3.89 FIP are much closer to his career ERA.
Peralta has a career-low 9.0 K/9, but he still ranks in the 69th percentile in chase rate, 79th in whiff rate, and 66th in K rate. He's still a premier strikeout pitcher compared to most of the league.
In addition to generating whiffs at a high clip, Peralta is a soft-contact machine. He ranks in the 85th percentile in hard-hit percentage and 78th in average exit velocity. The only problem for Peralta is a robust 9.3% walk rate.
Boston is about league average in walk rate since May 10, so this matchup favors Peralta.
Milwaukee has had an inconsistent offense all year. Since May 10, the Brewers rank 26th with an 84 wRC+.
You don't have to think too hard about why the Brewers offense is struggling. Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio are supposed to be regular 120 or better wRC+ players. Instead, Yelich has an 87 wRC+ in 2025 and Chourio is sitting at 90. Things won't change for the Brewers offense without the stars performing.
This matchup isn't awful for Milwaukee, though.
Bello has a poor 6.88 K/9, which will shield the Brewers' strikeout problems (their biggest weakness). They are also one of the better teams in MLB at drawing walks, ranking top 10 in walk rate since May 10.
Red Sox vs Brewers Picks and Predictions
I think the Brewers will grab a multi-run win here.
Boston might have to push Bello as far as possible, as Richard Fitts didn't go deep in Tuesday's game. That already taxed the bullpen and Bello will likely force Boston to tax the bullpen even further.
This feels like one that could get out of hand for the Red Sox, so I'll take the Milwaukee run line at plus money.
Pick: Brewers -1.5 (play to -105)
Moneyline
I'm not playing on either side of the Moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
As mentioned above, I like the Brewers' run line here.
Over/Under
I'm also staying away from over/unders for this game.
