The New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox on October 1, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 6:08 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
In the three years since MLB has expanded the Wild Card round to three games, all 12 teams to win Game 1 have advanced into the divisional series. After suffering a thrilling 3-1 loss in Tuesday's series opener, the Yankees will now need to buck that trend in order to keep their World Series aspirations alive.
The Yankees are heavy betting favorites in Game 2 of the series, as Brayan Bello (3.39 ERA, 166 and 2/3 IP) will face off against Carlos Rodon (3.09 ERA, 195 and 1/3 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction
- Red Sox vs Yankees pick: F5 Yankees -0.5
My Red Sox vs Yankees best bet is on the New York Yankees spread in the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Yankees Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 7.5 100o / -120u | +150 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 7.5 100o / -120u | -180 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Brayan Bello (BOS) | Stat | LHP Carlos Rodon (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-9 | W-L | 18-9 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.2 |
| 3.35/4.42 | ERA /xERA | 3.09/3.31 |
| 4.19/4.39 | FIP / xFIP | 3.78/3.89 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.05 |
| 9.3% | K-BB% | 16.5% |
| 49.8% | GB% | 43.5% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 101 | Location+ | 96 |
Nick Martin’s Red Sox vs Yankees Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Must Find Answers Against Lefties
The Red Sox’s recent struggles to hit left-handed pitching appeared to be the team's most notable flaw entering this series and despite managing a dramatic win in Game 1, they did little to alleviate those concerns. Max Fried allowed zero earned runs and just four hits across six and a third innings before right-handed reliever Luke Weaver came into the game and blew the Yankees' lead on a play that exposed Aaron Judge's ailing arm in right field.
Boston struggling to hit a true ace in Fried, who clearly pitched well, isn't overly shocking. Over the last 30 days the Red Sox hold a wRC+ of 85 versus left-handed pitching and hold the fourth-worst BB/K ratio in baseball. Roman Anthony's absence from the lineup has helped exacerbate the team's woes versus lefties, as the tremendously talented rookie has slugged .433 versus LHP this season.
Garrett Crochet still appeared to offer an edge over Fried entering Game 1, while the Yankees bullpen has continued to be untrustworthy in key moments. Boston also grades out as a considerably better team in terms of fielding and base-running, while home-field advantage appears to be overrated in high-pressure Wildcard games.
Those edges were the reason that we liked the Red Sox at +115 last night despite potential struggles versus Fried, and while Game 1 easily still could have gone the other way, many of them did come to fruition in Boston's win.
The Red Sox will likely need to win around the margins once again to find success in Wednesday's matchup, as they will face another tough left-handed starter in Rodon with a pitcher who may be slightly overvalued in Bello on the mound.
Bello has pitched to an ERA of 4.55 in his last 31 and 2/3 innings of work and holds pretty shaky underlying results in that span, with an xFIP of 4.77 and a strikeout minus walk rate of 6.5%. He also holds a Pitching+ rating of 90 in those outings and has been hard-hit 42.6% of the time.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Rodon Offers a Needed Edge
After two of the Yankees' more trustworthy relievers allowed key earned runs in Game 1 of the series, fans will certainly be desperate to see Rodon offer a high-quality outing versus a Red Sox side that has struggled mightily versus lefties of late.
With an xERA of 3.32 and 3.89 xFIP this season, Rodon does appear to offer a considerable edge over Bello. Rodon remained in excellent form down the stretch this season, pitching to an ERA of 2.61 and an xFIP of 3.63 throughout his final five starts. He held a Stuff+ rating of 105 and a Pitching+ of 102 in those outings and was hard-hit 36.4% of the time.
The Yankees' swing-and-miss concerns were exposed in Game 1 by a Cy Young-level pitcher in Crochet, but a matchup versus a righty that generates very few strikeouts in Bello could prove much more favorable. The Yankees finished the regular season with a league-leading wRC+ of 118 versus right-handed pitching and hold a wRC+ of 115 versus RHP over the last 30 days.
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
Some of the fundamental concerns that have plagued the Yankees were exposed in Game 1 of the series, as well as their boom-or-bust offense, which leans heavily upon power-hitting in order to find success. While the Yankees' shaky fielding will remain a concern in Game 2 of the series, Bello provides a drastically better matchup for the Yankees' sluggers to get right after struggling with Crochet Tuesday.
Rodon continued to pitch at a very high level down the stretch and should be well situated to offer a strong outing versus a Red Sox lineup that has struggled to lefties of late.
At -120 I see value in backing the Yankees to cover -0.5 in the first five innings and would bet it down to -125.
Pick: New York Yankees F5 -0.5 (-120, Fanatics; play to -125)
