The Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox on August 13, 2026. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 3:07 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNET.
The Red Sox are favored by -154 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Blue Jays are +142 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Red Sox vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-154) | Bet to -215
My Red Sox vs Blue Jays best bet is on Boston to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 8 -105o / -115u | -154 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -126 | 8 -105o / -115u | +142 |
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays moneyline: Red Sox -154, Blue Jays +142
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays over/under: 8 (-105o / -115u)
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+105), Blue Jays +1.5 (-126)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Probable Pitchers
| Payton Tolle (LHP, BOS) | Stat | Max Scherzer (RHP, TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-6 | W-L | 1-4 |
| 2.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.5 |
| 3.20/2.79 | ERA / xERA | 7.25/5.43 |
| 3.24/3.49 | FIP / xFIP | 6.88/5.36 |
| 21.8% | K-BB% | 7.5% |
| 36.9% | GB% | 34.7% |
| .286 | BABIP | .271 |
| 114 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 99 | Location+ | 103 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays MLB Betting Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
Payton Tolle struck out a career high 14 A’s in his last start and say whatever you want about the lineup the team from Sacramento is currently posting, but Tolle also sat at his highest velocity of the season (97.6 mph), a half mph above his previous high in his first start (97.1) and he did this in just 84 pitches.
In fact, that’s five straight starts with at least seven strikeouts and a high of 90 pitches for Tolle.
With a 21.8 K-BB% and 35.5 HardHit% it seems Boston just replaced Garrett Crochet with another version of him. Tolle isn’t running a single estimator reaching three and a half.
BARTOLO’s projected nine (which includes Alejandro Kirk for the day game after a night game) is averaging just an 89 wRC+ at home, 94 wRC+ (.148 ISO) vs LHP and 86 wRC+ over the last 30 days. The bottom five batters do not include a single one reaching league average in either of the last two categories.
The Boston projected defense (without Rutschman) sits at 9 FRV and a bullpen that didn’t need to do much has the best estimators in the league over the last 30 days (2.68 FIP, 3.26 xFIP, 3.01 SIERA) by nearly two-tenths of a run over the second best bullpen. It’s also BARTOLO’s top rated bullpen with a 3.44 wFIP.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
Max Scherzer hasn’t embarrassed himself in three starts back from the IL, allowing just four runs over 14 innings with a 15.3 K-BB% and 33 HardHit%. His K-BB has been above 17% in each of his last two and his 94.2 mph fastball average last time out was his highest of the season by half a mph. Scherzer hasn’t averaged 94 mph for a full season since his first year with the Mets (2022).
Scherzer has a 3.99 ERA and has allowed a .314 wOBA in these three starts, though LHBs still have a .348 wOBA against him (.412 for the season).
All great signs and probably the most we can hope for out of Scherzer, whose only remaining goal is climbing the career strikeout leaderboard (19 more to Gaylord Perry in 9th place).
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Pick, Betting Analysis
For some reason, the Boston offense has hit better away from Fenway this year with Thursday’s projected lineup (sans Rutschman) averaging a 115 wRC+ on the road, 103 vs RHP and 117 over the last 30 days. Only Jarren Duran (63) and Connor Wong (36) are below a 115 wRC+ over the last month.
I’m projecting Kirk in, but Rutschman out for a couple of reasons.
First, this game is a couple of hours later than a normal day game in Toronto and the LHP necessitates more of a need for Kirk’s bat, while Rutschman is just off a long IL stint a couple of days ago. This would seem like a good spot to rest him.
Second, to illustrate the point that I’m coming to my conclusion on this game while giving Toronto the better catching situation.
Toronto, in part because of that catching projection, would have 19 FRV on the field with BARTOLO’s nine.
A bullpen that traded away Jeff Hoffman at the deadline owns a 4.02 FIP, 4.57 xFIP and 4.49 SIERA over the last 30 days. Their 7.7 K-BB% is fourth worst in the league during this run. BARTOLO ranks them 14th overall.
I have Payton Tolle fairly well aligned with his 3.20 ERA according to underlying metrics. That gives him a two run edge over Scherzer’s season numbers and still nearly a run better than Scherzer’s post-IL uptick.
More clearly, the Boston offense is nearly 20 points (wRC+) ahead of the Toronto one in this situation.
Toronto does get a 10 FRV edge here (which also depends on the catching situations), but bullpen estimators separate these teams by more than a run and a third over the last 30 days and nearly half a run by BARTOLO’s rankings.
I make the Red Sox very large favorites here and would play them to -215, dropping to half a unit above -200.
Also, if you play on FanDuel and have chosen 50% Profit Boosts as your rewards this week, this is a great game to use one on (I boosted it to -109).
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-154) | Bet to -215
