The Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox on September 24, 2025. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Red Sox took the series opener 4-1 and will send Garrett Crochet to the mound tonight against the Blue Jays.
Find my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays pick: Under 7.5 (-120)
My Red Sox vs Blue Jays best bet is Under 7.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | -140 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | +120 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Garrett Crochet (BOS) | Stat | RHP Max Scherzer (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 17-5 | W-L | 5-4 |
| 5.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 2.69 / 3.00 | ERA / xERA | 5.06 / 4.62 |
| 2.95 / 2.64 | FIP / xFIP | 5.08 / 4.65 |
| 1.05 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 25.8 | K-BB% | 16.2 |
| 48.2 | GB% | 26.0 |
| 116 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 99 | Location+ | 107 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Preview
The Blue Jays have been one of the elite offenses all year, but they have been in quite a slump in September, ranking 18th in the majors this month with a 97 rating.
On top of that, they will have to face AL Cy Young candidate Garrett Crochet. The Boston ace is having a great season, particularly on the road, where he holds a 2.42 ERA compared to his 3.02 ERA at Fenway Park.
Plus, the Red Sox bullpen ranks second in MLB with a 3.45 ERA.
Boston has performed well despite missing phenom rookie Roman Anthony due to an injury, but a possible under depends heavily on Crochet and their bullpen keeping the Jays down.
Our Bet Labs "Wind Whisper Unders" also brings a weather angle for this total pick.
This system is built for MLB totals where weather and market signals align quietly but consistently toward the under. It targets regular season games from 2020 through 2025 where the closing total falls between 7 and 10 runs —a middle range that allows for variance but avoids extremes.
This strategy focuses on games with a specific weather profile: wind blowing from the left, in from the right, or straight in, with speeds between 3 and 15 miles per hour. Combined with moderate temperatures between 30 °C and 70 °C, these environmental conditions help suppress deep fly balls without overly skewing the market.
Line movement also plays a role. The total must have dropped by up to 2.5 runs from open to close, signaling steady downward pressure from sharper bettors. Importantly, the public is not fully behind the under —support remains modest, falling between 1 and 55. This indicates market resistance and helps ensure the number isn’t over-adjusted.
By aligning downward line moves, cooling weather patterns, and under-the-radar betting splits, the system consistently identifies games where offense is subtly but significantly less likely to break out.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-120, bet365)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Betting Trends
