Braves vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Picks: Betting Value on Zac Gallen & Arizona

Braves vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Picks: Betting Value on Zac Gallen & Arizona article feature image

Chris Coduto/Getty Images. Pictured: Zac Gallen

  • The Diamondbacks are short home underdogs on Monday against the Braves.
  • Atlanta is starting an opener, but the Snakes counter with the elite Zac Gallen.
  • Kenny Ducey breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Braves vs. Diamondbacks Odds

Braves Odds-120
Diamondbacks Odds+100
Over/Under8.5 (-105 / -115)
Time8:10 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Diamondbacks' momentum was stopped in its tracks over the weekend with a four-game sweep at the hands of the rival Dodgers, and they'll be out for revenge here at home against the Braves.

Atlanta will be seeking its third series win in the last four after taking two of three against Miami over the weekend. The Braves will be up against it with the pitching matchup tilting towards the Snakes.

Let's get into how to bet this one.

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Braves Offense Needs to Come to Life

The Braves' offense has been spotty over the last couple of weeks. They're down in 18th with a 100 wRC+ during that time, first in Strikeout Rate and just 22nd in Walk Rate. There's been little to be excited about, aside from a 9.3% Barrel Rate that ranks fifth among all teams in the last 14 days.

As a result, it's been a rocky go of it for Atlanta. This team has been very fortunate to avoid a series loss in three straight tries, lucking out by playing the Marlins six times and drawing the Phillies four times.

The Braves will rely on their bullpen here, and I'm not sure that's a really great look. They're 13th in the last two weeks with a 3.70 xFIP, though I suppose things could be worse. The arms are out-playing the bats at this point.

Spencer Strider will be the opener, and at the very least he's been pretty dominant. He's in the top 7% of the league in Whiff Rate and hasn't allowed a run in 6 2/3 innings. He does not do a particularly great job of pitching to soft contact, but he's been incredible at missing bats with a 38.9% Strikeout Rate.

Gallen Gives the Diamondbacks an Edge

The Diamondbacks will counter with Zac Gallen, which is exciting for fans of great pitching. The right-hander is sporting a 2.22 ERA with a 2.30 xERA, 1.93 Expected Batting Average and just a 31% Hard-Hit Rate. His Baseball Savant page is a delight to look at considering his elite ranks in just about every one of their predictive metrics.

Gallen really doesn't have any weakness, aside from the fact that he doesn't strike out many hitters. Considering how bad the Braves have been in that department, perhaps he's in line for some better numbers in that category.

In terms of the Diamondbacks offense, it's been pretty great all things considered. They're up in eighth in Walk Rate over the last two weeks and 12th in wRC+. At worst, they've been a slightly above-average lineup of late, which is pretty good for a team without a wealth of talent.

They were on an absolute roll with five wins in six games before running into the Dodgers over the weekend. While they didn't come away with a win and lost the opener 14-1, it should be said that Arizona lost the next three games by just five runs combined.

Braves-Diamondbacks Pick

The Diamondbacks are performing at a higher level than the Braves at the plate right now, and while the Braves have a pretty solid opener on Monday they are backing him with little support. The bullpen has been average at best, and the offense has lacked consistency.

Gallen is a menace, and he should not give in against a collection of slumping bats. It's not always fun relying on the Diamondbacks' offense, but you could find worse times to back them right now. They should be favored.

Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+100)

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