MLB Playoffs Braves vs Phillies Odds, Picks for NLDS Game 4
Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Rhys Hoskins
- The Braves are short favorites in tonight's NLDS Game 4 against the Phillies.
- Atlanta looks to keep its season alive behind Charlie Morton, while Philly hopes to advance to the NLCS behind Noah Syndergaard.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Braves vs. Phillies Game 4 Odds
| Braves Odds | -126 |
| Phillies Odds | +108 |
| Over/Under | 9 (-110/-110) |
| Time | 2:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies will meet in Game 4 on Saturday with the home side looking to pull off the series upset and advance to the NLCS.
After holding out their release of the starter for Game 3, Charlie Morton will be the Braves’ Game 4 starter against Noah Syndergaard, who has an xERA of 4.29 on the season.
However, Morton has a 4.11 xERA, so he is not much better. He does tout an elite curveball, which could throw a wrench in some Philadelphia swings.
Overall, both bullpens have shown their best already, so some runs could come across the plate later in the game.
Braves Need Morton to Bring the Goods
Morton is a solid veteran with plenty of playoff experience. He is over the hill, though. His 4.34 ERA is nothing to write home about. He ranked in the 28th percentile in average exit velocity and the 17th percentile in hard hit rate. He is still top of the line when it comes to strikeouts and whiffs, but he walks more batters than the median starter.
The Phillies also tout six batters in their lineup with a .325 xwOBA off of righties since August 1. Morton threw four games against Philly. In three of the four starts, he allowed at least four earned runs.
Atlanta’s bullpen is about league average. The Braves are elite in LOB percentage, but otherwise a 3.85 xFIP ranks 14th in MLB in relief since August 1.
They also only had three relievers under a 3.00 xFIP, so assuming Morton does not go deep into this game, the Phillies will have many chances to score against the weaker of the Atlanta relief options.
Can Syndergaard Get Phillies Over Hump?
Syndergaard prevents contact well, ranking in the 80th percentile in average exit velocity and the 79th percentile in hard hit rate.
He doesn't miss bats anymore, though, with a 25% K rate that rates far below what we saw during his prime in Queens.
The Braves don't have any notable splits when it comes to hitting right-handed pitching … that is to say, they're good against both. Since August 1, they had a 114 wRC+ and .775 OPS against righties.
The Philly bullpen has a similar xFIP as Atlanta’s (3.96 vs. 3.85). They struggle mightily with preventing baserunners from scoring, so this almost definitely means Atlanta will find a way to get some runs off of middle relief options, especially with weaker starting options in Game 4 for Philly.
Braves-Phillies Pick
The over is the best call in this game because neither team has a lockdown starting pitcher. Syndergaard does not match up well with Atlanta's offense, and even if Morton’s curveball is on, he will issue free passes and get knocked around, as he has been inclined to do when facing the Phillies.
Play the over in this game at anything from 9 (-120) or better.
Pick: Over 9 (-120) or better.
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