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MLB Odds & Picks for Brewers vs. Padres: Does Milwaukee Have Value As Road Underdog?

MLB Odds & Picks for Brewers vs. Padres: Does Milwaukee Have Value As Road Underdog? article feature image
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Lawrence Iles/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Andrew McCutchen, Tyrone Taylor and Hunter Renfroe.

  • The Padres are slight favorites at home against the Brewers tonight.
  • Nick Martinez takes the mound for San Diego and will be opposed by Milwaukee's Adrian Houser.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Brewers vs. Padres Odds

Brewers Odds -105
Padres Odds -115
Over/Under 8
Time 9:40 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Milwaukee Brewers head to beautiful Petco Park in San Diego to take on the Padres, hoping to shake off an 8-2 trouncing at the hands of the lowly Nationals on Sunday.

The Brew Crew will send Adrian Houser to the mound looking to keep the red-hot Padres in check. Houser has been steady so far in 2022, with a 3.22 ERA and 3-4 record in 36 1/3 IP.

San Diego will hand the ball to Nick Martinez, who has had a strong return to the big leagues after spending four seasons overseas, pitching to an ERA of 3.89 in 34 2/3 IP.

Brewers’ Offense Off To Surprising Start

Even with Willy Adames currently out of the mix, the Brewers’ lineup seems to be packing more punch than one may expect. Personally, I was not overly sold on how potent this unit would be, but the results so far have been very solid and appear likely to continue.

We might not see Rowdy Tellez hang in among the absolute top hitters in the NL come completion of 162 games, but the Brewers’ lineup seems to hold some very legitimate upside. That is certainly a scary sight for the rest of the NL considering the quality Milwaukee’s pitching staff.

Milwaukee has hit to a wOBA of .330 and wRC+ of 112 vs. right-handed pitching, and will offer a tough challenge to Martinez.

The Brewers hold the third-highest xSLG rate in baseball at .479, and fifth-highest xWOBA of .347, and the positive results seen so far seem likely to continue.

Houser has produced steady results so far in 2022, with a 3.74 xERA in 36 1/3 IP.  He has improved upon his lowly K/BB ratio this season, and a sterling QOPA of 4.97 suggests that the upwards trend could continue, even though his main strength is inducing ground-ball outs with his heavy sinker.

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San Diego Padres

The Padres have the ninth-best runs per game average this season, yet it’s surprising to see how far down San Diego is in expected batting marks.

The Padres have the fourth-lowest xSLG rate league-wide and the fourth-lowest xWOBA.

The Padres’ actual results vs. right-handed pitching have not been as strong as you might expect either, as they have hit to just a 90 wRC+ rating, and a .290 wOBA.

This lineup does appear to be clicking into more of a groove after thrashing the Giants for 20 runs over three games at Oracle over the weekend, but the Padres do continue to appear due for more average results at the plate soon.

Martinez is a likely regression candidate himself, with an xERA of 4.66.

That high mark may be a little unkind, particularly looking toward his spectacular changeup, but I still do not expect to see better than average results from Martinez this season.

Brewers-Padres Pick

Houser should offer the Brewers a slight pitching edge for the first 6-7 innings of this contest compared to Martinez, at which point we should see the Milwaukee’s bullpen able to finish it off.

The Brewers’ lineup has produced better results vs. right-handed pitching than the Padres, which analytically appears to be far from an anomaly and something which could actually hold true to an extent moving forward.

Milwaukee will naturally slug less effectively at Petco Park, but I still think their order is not far enough beyond this Padres lineup to warrant an underdog tag in this pitching matchup.

Considering both those factors, I think we are getting quite a good price to back the Brewers on the road in this spot at +100, and would play the Brewers down to -110.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers +100 (Play to -110)

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