Brewers vs. Pirates Odds & Picks: Bet Thursday’s Favorite (June 30)

Brewers vs. Pirates Odds & Picks: Bet Thursday’s Favorite (June 30) article feature image

Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Rowdy Tellez

  • The Brewers and Pirates open up a four-game series on Thursday night.
  • The Brewers have won each of the first six games and are looking to continue their dominance, but the Pirates have other ideas.
  • Tony Sartori digs into the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Brewers vs. Pirates Odds

Brewers Odds-126
Pirates Odds+108
Over/Under9 (+100 / -122)
Time7:05 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We're set for the first matchup of this four-game NL Central intradivisional series between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers. This is the seventh meeting between these two clubs this season and the Brewers have won each of the first six games.

Will the Brewers continue their dominance against Pittsburgh, or can the Pirates pull off the upset on their home field?

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Milwaukee Brewers: Houser has Dominated Pirates in Past

The Milwaukee Brewers enter this series in tremendous form as they have won four straight games and nine of their past 12. I expect this trend to continue as right-hander Adrian Houser is slated to take the mound for Milwaukee.

Through 14 starts this season, Houser is 4-8 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. While those numbers are not great by any means, Houser has utterly dominated Pittsburgh.

Over his past five starts against the Pirates, Houser is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and a 0.964 WHIP. Following Houser is one of the best bullpens in baseball.

Since May 1st, the Brewers' relief pitching ranks ninth in the league in ERA, fifth in BA, 11th in SLG and eighth in wOBA. This pitching staff should get plenty of run support as the Brewers are slated to take on right-hander JT Brubaker.

When facing right-handed pitchers, the Brewers rank seventh in the league in SLG, seventh in OPS and seventh in wOBA since the beginning of May. In their one game against Brubaker this season, the Brewers won 5-2.

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Pittsburgh Pirates: Will Brubaker's Struggles Continue?

The Pittsburgh Pirates enter this series in poor form as they have lost eight of their past 13 games. As mentioned above, right-hander JT Brubaker is slated to take the mound for the Pirates.

Through 15 starts this season, Brubaker is 1-7 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Over his past two starts against Milwaukee, Brubaker is 0-2 and gave up seven runs on eight hits over 11 innings.

Following Brubaker is a fade-worthy bullpen. Since May 1st, the Pirates' relief pitching ranks just 20th in the league in ERA, 18th in BA, 20th in SLG and 21st in wOBA.

This pitching staff will most likely not get much run support either as the Pirates are slated to go against right-hander Adrian Houser. Through 45 career plate appearances against Houser, this Pirates lineup possesses a mere .175 BA, .275 SLG and a .246 wOBA.

Additionally, the Pirates struggle mightily when facing right-handed pitchers. Since the beginning of May, the Pirates rank just 28th in the league in BA, 26th in SLG, 27th in OPS and 27th in wOBA.

Brewers-Pirates Pick

There is no denying that this is a square play and the public will also be heavily on Milwaukee as they have a generous line in a very favorable matchup. However, I think this value is being created because of Houser's poor numbers and the fact that the Pirates are at home.

That being said, Houser has dominated the Pirates and Pittsburgh is 0-3 when facing Milwaukee at home this season. Aside from that, the Brewers own the bullpen and hitting matchups as well.

This is certainly a fishy line with the Brewers having such a cheap price, but I am taking the bait as they have the advantage in every statistical category. Until the Pirates prove they can actually win a game against Milwaukee, the Brewers should continue to be backed in this series.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-130) | Play up to (-145)

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