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Brewers vs Rockies MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Milwaukee in Labor Day Showdown (Monday, Sept. 5)

Brewers vs Rockies MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Milwaukee in Labor Day Showdown (Monday, Sept. 5) article feature image
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Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Milwaukee Brewers standout Rowdy Tellez.

  • The Rockies host the Brewers in Monday's MLB showdown.
  • Milwaukee enters this Labor Day affair as the slight favorite, which is where analyst Kenny Ducey has landed with his top pick.
  • Check out below why he's backing the Brewers to get the road win.

Brewers vs. Rockies Odds

Brewers Odds -134
Rockies Odds +114
Over/Under 12 (-105 / -115)
Time 4:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Milwaukee Brewers have fallen on hard times with four losses in their last six games. And while the Arizona Diamondbacks didn’t offer them any reprieve, perhaps the Colorado Rockies will in Monday’s showdown.

The Rockies have now dropped eight of 11 outings and will have to try and get it done in this meeting behind Ryan Feltner.

So, will they prevail? Let’s take a look and see if we can find betting value.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers will once again trot out Adrian Houser, who has consistently disappointed this season. The left-hander allowed five earned runs over 2 1/3 innings in his last start, which came in late August against the Dodgers, before he was relegated to the bullpen for their following series.

Houser’s peripherals don’t really offer any reasons for hope. His 4.82 xERA would point to the fact that his 5.02 ERA is worth reading into. There’s that, and his high 41.2% hard-hit rate. While we don’t really mind hard-hit balls with sinker-ballers like Houser, we do mind a steep drop in ground-ball rate.

Houser owns a career 55.8% ground ball rate and induced them at a 60.5% clip last season. This year, that number has dropped to 48.1%. He’s allowing more fly balls, but more importantly he’s allowing more line drives. When you’re pitching to contact, but can’t get that contact, that’s a major issue.

Colorado Rockies

Feltner is a pitcher who’s hard to figure out. It seems there’s a very miniscule chance that he’s good, but he’s tossed in some decent outings over the last few weeks and judging by this line has garnered plenty of respect from oddsmakers.

Feltner has now allowed seven home runs in his last six outings, which sounds like an impossible feat to accomplish. With that said, he owns a respectable 3.86 ERA over the last three games, and it’s kind of hard to believe considering he’s had to face the Mets, Braves and Giants.

Feltner is primarily a fastball pitcher who has rolled up grounders at a league-average rate and who has been victimized by the gopher ball, as we touched on earlier. His 9.5% barrel rate this season and 10% career mark is quite unsurprising, as is a .503 xSLG this season.

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Brewers-Rockies Pick

The great news for Houser is no team has hit more ground balls in the second half of the season than the Rockies, who lead the league with a commanding 49.2% ground-ball rate. The bad news for Feltner is that the Brewers have the second-highest home run-to-fly ball ratio in the same period of time.

While both pitchers are pretty bad, one of them has a forgiving matchup while one doesn’t.  It also doesn’t hurt that Milwaukee sits 12th in wRC+ in the second half while Colorado is third worst overall.

At Coors Field, the Rockies could get an offensive boost, but without the ball in the air it’s no guarantee they’ll really excel. I think the Brewers, a team which has converted fly balls into homers, will really enjoy life.

Pick: Brewers ML (-134)

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