Cardinals vs. Mets Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Bassitt Lead New York to Series Win? (Thursday, May 19)

Cardinals vs. Mets Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Bassitt Lead New York to Series Win? (Thursday, May 19) article feature image

Via Greg Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Bassitt

  • The Mets host the Cardinals for the finale of a four-game set.
  • New York has taken two of the first three contests and turns to Chris Bassitt on Thursday.
  • Doug Ziefel breaks down the game and shares his best bet below.

Cardinals vs. Mets Odds

Cardinals Odds+150
Mets Odds-185
Time1:10 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The New York Mets took the series lead Wednesday as their offense opened up on the Cardinals bullpen and gave Max Scherzer all the run support he needed before he, unfortunately, left with an injury. Now the Mets will need to carry that momentum over as they look to win their 11th series of the season.

New York will turn to Chris Bassitt, who has been tremendous this season and takes the ball with a sparkling 2.34 ERA. His counterpart in this one, Dakota Hudson, enters with a very respectable 3.06 ERA, but there are many indicators that suggest Hudson is very fortunate to hold that ERA.

Can the Mets de facto ace keep the train rolling? Or are the Cards poised to have the last laugh?

Expect Cardinals' Bats to be Quiet

The St. Louis Cardinals have been synonymous with success over their storied history and this season appears to be no different. They are off to a solid start and it is primarily due to their two stars in the middle of the order.

Nolan Arenado is hitting .317 with nine homers and is among the league leaders in RBIs. While he's cooled off in this series, the man right in front of him in the order has picked it up. Paul Goldschmidt has been raking and is hitting .317.

Overall, those two have propelled the Cardinals lineup to the upper echelon of the National League. The Cards are 11th in wRC+ and fifth in offensive runs above average. However, Chris Bassitt has already proven he can give them fits.

Just a few short weeks ago, Bassitt twirled six shutout innings while punching out six guys in St. Louis. That performance is just one of many great outings from Bassitt, who has been tough to square up this season.

He'll enter this start in the top 2% of the league in average exit velocity and in the top 20% of qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate. If Bassitt can contain Goldschmidt and Arenado, he should be in line for another excellent outing.

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Mets to Capitalize on Hudson's Good Fortune

Dakota Hudson may not be one of the premier names when it comes to starting pitchers, but he's been very good at keeping runs off the board.

Hudson has a career ERA of 3.13, but a FIP of 4.70. However, those discrepancies have been widened this season. His expected ERA is over two full runs higher than his actual ERA, which is due to the amount of solid contact he has allowed so far.

His MLB percentile rankings look like the Blue Man Group took turns stepping on them as he's in the bottom 20% of the league in nearly every expected statistic.

On the other hand, the Mets are a team that has proven they can make opposing pitchers pay for mistakes. The Mets entered Wednesday fourth in the majors in batting average and seventh in the league in wRC+. So what did they do to add to those numbers? They only put up 11 runs on 11 hits.

Hudson's arsenal is made to pitch to contact, but the Mets are a team that is more than happy to put the ball in play as they rarely strikeout and have done a tremendous job of executing once runners get in scoring position.

Cardinals-Mets Pick

This game is a quick turnaround after Wednesday's game, during which the Mets put the hammer in the coffin late and gave themselves a boost after the deflating exit of Max Scherzer.

I expect the Mets the keep rolling against Hudson, who is well overdue for a rough outing. Along with that, the Cardinals' bullpen has not proven it can stop the bleeding once Hudson exits this game. That should help provide Bassitt plenty of support as he keeps the St. Louis bats in check.

Take the Mets to roll in the series finale.

Pick: Mets -155

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