The Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs on October 4, 2025. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 2:08 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on TBS.
Find my MLB betting preview and Cubs vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Cubs vs Brewers Prediction
- Cubs vs Brewers picks: Over 7.5 (play to 8.5)
My Cubs vs Brewers best bet is on the Over 7.5 (play to 8.5). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Brewers Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 7 -125o / 105u | +135 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7 -125o / 105u | -160 |
Cubs vs Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Matthew Boyd (CHC) | Stat | RHP Freddy Peralta (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 14-8 | W-L | 17-6 |
| 3.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.6 |
| 3.21/3.72 | ERA /xERA | 2.70/3.46 |
| 3.65/4.22 | FIP / xFIP | 3.65/3.85 |
| 1.09 | WHIP | 1.08 |
| 15.6% | K-BB% | 3.1 |
| 44.9% | GB% | 37.3 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 107 | Location+ | 104 |
Sean Paul’s Cubs vs Brewers Preview
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Watch Out for the Brew Crew
The Brewers were, without question, the best team in the National League this year; their record speaks for itself.
One of the primary reasons for Milwaukee running the National League is its ace, Freddy Peralta. He posted a career-best 2.70 ERA, but his 3.45 xERA and 3.60 FIP indicate that some good luck went his way.
He's been brilliant, but control is still a problem. He walked 3.36 batters per nine innings pitched, which typically limits him to five or six innings, since he also strikes out 10.39 per nine.
Here's where that gets tricky — all it takes is one inning where Peralta loses the zone for him to come out of the game.
Despite a lackluster September, the Brewers still finished with the 13th-best wRC+ among MLB lineups across 14 games. They have possibly the best plate approach in baseball, as they posted a 9.8% walk rate in September with a 20% strikeout rate — both figures ranked in the top five. Being an opposing pitcher against this Brewers squad is an unenviable task.
Plus, they all push the envelope on the base paths. The Brewers have plenty of speedsters and stole 23 bases in September (tied for 10th).
On the flip side, the Brewers' lack of power became even clearer in September, hitting just 17 homers (29th in MLB). Still, it's not easy to have below-average power and be an above-average offense.
Ultimately, I feel decent about Milwaukee's chances of doing damage in this series.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: Boyd's In For a Major Test
The Cubs went with a bit of a shocker in game one, starting Matthew Boyd on short rest.
Sure, Boyd has been arguably the Cubs' most reliable pitcher this year (besides maybe Cade Horton), but that reliability has decreased over the past couple of months.
Over Boyd's last seven outings, he posted a 6.08 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP. Given that Boyd is basically at his career-high mark in innings, I'm not sure starting him on just three days' rest is a great idea. He's worn down lately, and he could probably use the recovery time.
He only allowed one run in the Cubs' win over the Padres in game one, but he navigated around five baserunners in 4 1/3 innings. This Brewers offense might not be as forgiving as the Padres were if Boyd fills the bases.
I still buy plenty of stock in the Cubs' offense. They had their cold streak, but I feel like it's a thing of the past. They finished September with a 113 wRC+ (4th), while also ranking fifth in home runs and walk rate. That should work perfectly against Peralta, who can lose the zone from time to time.
And how about open stance, Pete Crow-Armstrong? Time will tell if that one tweak is all he needed to right the ship, but he drilled three hits in the series-clinching win over the Padres with his new stance. It helped him catch up to fastballs that previously destroyed him. He could be a big boost to an already dazzling Chicago lineup.
Cubs vs Brewers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Let's keep it simple here: We're looking at two of the better offensive teams in baseball facing off, and the over hit with ease in each of the last three games these two played in Milwaukee.
I see more of the same here.
None of the Cubs pitchers inspires me, and Peralta couldn't ask for a tougher matchup.
The total feels a bit low here. I think we get a lot closer to double-digit runs than dropping below 7.5 runs.
Pick: Over 7.5 (play to 8.5)
Moneyline
No play.
Run Line (Spread)
No play.
Over/Under
I like the over.
Cubs vs Brewers Betting Trends
