The New York Mets host the Chicago Cubs on June 23, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MARQ.
The Cubs are favored by +100 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mets are -120 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cubs vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cubs vs Mets Prediction
- Cubs vs Mets Pick: Over 8.5 + Mets Moneyline + Jared Young Under 0.5 Hits
Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Mets Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 8 -119o / -101u | +100 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -197 | 8 -119o / -101u | -120 |
- Cubs vs Mets moneyline: Cubs +100, Mets -120
- Cubs vs Mets over/under: 8 (-119o / -101u)
- Cubs vs Mets spread: Cubs -1.5 (+162), Mets +1.5 (-197)
Cubs vs Mets Kalshi MLB Odds
Cubs vs Mets Probable Pitchers
| Edward Cabrera | Stat | Kodai Senga |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | W-L | 0-5 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.4 |
| 5.21 / 4.86 | ERA / xERA | 9 / 5.11 |
| 5.15 / 3.93 | FIP / xFIP | 6.81 / 5.13 |
| 12.5 | K-BB% | 9.6 |
| 42.9 | GB% | 26.9 |
| .296 | BABIP | .344 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 104 | Location+ | 95 |
Cubs vs Mets MLB Betting Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
The Cubs are sending Edward Cabrera out for this one after deciding to save Shota Imanaga for tomorrow to cover a game of the doubleheader after Game 1 of this series was rained out last night.
We have two less-than-efficient pitchers squaring off, with Kodai Senga on the other side. But let's look at Cabrera first. He is coming off an abbreviated start in which he threw just 67 pitches against the Rockies before leaving with an injury. However, he has avoided the IL and will move forward as one of the pitchers the Cubs rely upon most.
But it hasn't been a good year for the first-year Cub. He's posted a 5.21 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP and a 12.5% K-BB%. He can't throw strikes. Just 44% of his pitches result in a strike (a whiff, a called strike or a foul ball). That's really low. You don't see good pitchers below 45% like this. His Ball% is above 38%, and his average pitch count over the last five starts is in the 70s. So we're going to see some of the Cubs bullpen in this one, and that's good news for the Mets.
Per our BARTOLO tool, the Cubs bullpen ranks No. 29 in the league. Daniel Palencia is on the IL again, and a few other key injuries have really trainwrecked an already middling group of relievers.
It seems to me that the Mets should do their fair share of baserunning in this one. I wouldn't expect much from Cabrera.
MY PROJECTION ON CABRERA: 90 PITCHES, 5.2 IP, 5.1 H, 2.8 ER, 4.8 SO, 2.4 BB
New York Mets Betting Preview
The Mets are in a similar situation with a starter in Senga who just hasn't given them much to hold onto over the last couple of years. He's made just one start since returning from the IL. He went four innings and gave up four earned runs on four walks and two hits while striking out five.
Senga has been pretty nasty when he's been in the strike zone. His fastball velocity is above 96 mph, well above where it was last year, and his overall SwStr% sits at 13.6%. But he hasn't been able to throw enough strikes for that stuff to translate into good results. He does, however, own a strikeout rate near 25% and has recorded at least three strikeouts in every game in which he has thrown more than 50 pitches.
MY PROJECTION ON SENGA: 85 PITCHES, 5.2 IP, 4.2 H, 2.6 ER, 4.8 SO, 3.5 BB
The walks have always been the problem for Senga, and the Cubs like to take a walk. Five of their nine projected starters own walk rates (2025-2026) above 9%. Only one hitter (PCA) has a well below-average walk rate.
Cubs vs Mets Pick, Betting Analysis
How do you bet on a game with two pitchers like this? It gets pretty tough to figure out where to go. Cabrera and Senga are both capable of getting strikeouts and not allowing hits. They have good stuff but just can't command it. They usually won't get hit around the ballpark all night long, but they'll allow baserunners via the walk and leave themselves vulnerable to crooked numbers when extra-base hits come with men on base.
I think both of these guys will walk multiple hitters. They almost always do, and both of these lineups know how to take a walk. So you could parlay that together. My sim model likes a lot of scoring in this one. It would recommend the over 8.5 pretty heavily. And I like the Mets to score the bulk of the runs simply because of the current state of the Cubs pitching staff. Cabrera will struggle to get through five innings here, and the bullpen behind him is in rough shape.
But there's another angle I've found. It involves Jared Young, who has been starting at first base for the Mets against righties. In 11 of his 25 starts this year, however, he's been replaced in the middle of the game. The Mets don't want him facing lefties, and the Cubs have at least two lefties available in the bullpen tonight.
So we could very well see only two at-bats from Young. I like attacking the hits O/U market here. It even helps that Cabrera has a high walk rate. Young could take a walk, fly out and then get removed from the game; that would make this a very easy bet to cash.
Picks: Over 8.5, Mets Moneyline, Jared Young Under 0.5 Hits (+102)
