The Minnesota Twins host the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 23, 2026. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on TBS.
The Dodgers are favored by -175 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Twins are +144 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Dodgers vs Twins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Dodgers vs Twins Prediction
- Dodgers vs Twins Pick: Pass
Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Twins Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +104 | 9 -101o / -120u | -175 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -126 | 9 -101o / -120u | +144 |
- Dodgers vs Twins moneyline: Dodgers -175, Twins +144
- Dodgers vs Twins over/under: 9 (-101 / -120)
- Dodgers vs Twins spread: Dodgers -1.5 (+104), Twins +1.5 (-126)
Dodgers vs Twins Probable Pitchers
| LHP Justin Wrobleski (LAD) | Stat | LHP Kendry Rojas (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-2 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 2.72 / 4.18 | ERA / xERA | 1.26 / 3.77 |
| 3.50 / 4.38 | FIP / xFIP | 3.45 / 4.80 |
| 10.8% | K-BB% | 6.6% |
| 40.7% | GB% | 42.9% |
| .240 | BABIP | .306 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 111 | Location+ | 82 |
Dodgers vs Twins MLB Betting Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview
Tracking the evolution of Justin Wrobleski this year has been a maddening endeavor.
A big velocity boost in 2025 resulted in a 23.5 K-BB% over 23.2 innings from the end of June through the first week of August, but because the elite pitchers of the Dodger staff were coming off the IL, readying for their annual championship run, Wrobleski was banished to the bullpen and limited to 18.2 innings in much shorter stints for the rest of the season.'
There were some high expectations for his 2026 season, with some considering him a potential breakout candidate, and again, injuries gave him a shot.
Wrobleski posted a sparkling 1.25 ERA, through his first 36 innings, but with a 4.35 xERA and 5.23 xFIP. He simply stranded 86.1% of runners with a .222 BABIP and kept all seven of his barrels in the park.
For some reason, he also decided to double his four-seam usage from last year to 50.2%, despite losing 2.5 mph of velocity!
Regression and his first two home runs came against the Braves, where he allowed seven runs in total, but still came one out away from a complete game with a season-high seven strikeouts to one walk.
Two starts later, his velocity climbed to 94.5 mph and then94.9 mph before sitting above 95 mph in each of his last three starts.
The results? A 9.0 SwStr% over his last six starts, but only above an 8.8 SwStr% once because he had a 17 SwStr% in one start.
Four of those outings were still quality starts with two runs or less, while he allowed nine runs combined in the other two over just 9.2 innings.
He’s struck out more than five in just one of those games and only in one of his two starts back in Pittsburgh.
With the velocity increase, Wrobleski’s hard-hit rate has been 55% or higher in three of his last four starts and his pitch modeling has only improved slightly from the early lower-velocity starts to the higher ones.
The good news (I guess) is that all of his other non-FIP estimators have improved over the last 30 days (3.29 SIERA, 3.02 xFIP, .330 xwOBA), though they’re still well above four on the season (4.54 SIERA, 4.39 xFIP, 4.20 xERA).
And then there are his occasional in-game velocity drops.
His first eight fastballs were all between 95.9 mph and 97.3 mph in his last start, while eight of his last nine were between 92.5 mph and 94.7 mph with one at 95.5. He only threw 67 pitches.
If struggling with what to make of Wrobleski isn’t difficult enough, while it was heartwarming to see the Twins embrace Eric Lauer’s reverse splits and play their normal RHP lineup against him on Monday night, it didn’t produce much offense and makes projecting Tuesday’s lineup much more difficult.
Also, only two of the nine batters were true LHBs, while some were switch hitters who sometimes sit against LHPs. If they didn’t decide to bat left-handed, did it defeat the purpose? They did not bat left-handed.
Or maybe they were just in there because Will Klein opened and faced six batters in the first.
What kind of Minnesota lineup do we project on Tuesday night against Wrobleski’s .306 wOBA and .311 xwOBA against LHBs and .239 wOBA, but .322 xwOBA against RHBs?
What we do know is that Wrobleski is one of the better pitchers at holding base runners, who have only attempted to take off on 0.3% of opportunities. Fewer than 15 pitchers exceed his 3 Net Bases Prevented. Dalton Rushing had gunned down 4 of 16 batters coming into the week (1 catcher's CS Above Average).
Luke Keaschall (11 SB, 3 BRR, 1 Runs via SB) is the top base stealing threat, though the red hot Byron Buxton (7, 0, 1) is also one to keep an eye on, but this combination has shut down more running games than not.
The Dodgers are a top-three defense by Runs Prevented (17) and OAA (23). Andy Pages (8), Max Muncy (5) and Mookie Betts (4) lead the projected lineup in FRV (Fielding Run Value) with soft spots in Kyle Tucker (3) and Rushing (3).
Despite their fifth-worst 5.49 ERA over the last month, the Dodger bullpen is actually top third of the league by average estimators (4.70 FIP, 3.52 xFIP, 3.36 SIERA). Their 27.7 K% is tied for the top mark in the majors over this span. Their 20.7 HR/FB is the worst. An astonishing 17 of their 18 barrels have left the park.
As a result, BARTOLO still considers this the best bullpen in the league with a 3.86 wFIP.
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview
On April 23rd, Joe Ryan was battered for seven runs (four earned) and two home runs (one of two times he’s allowed more than one this season) by a then bottom of the league Mets offense at Citi Field.
He struck out only five of 25 batters with two walks, averaging just 91.9 mph on his fastball.
Since then, aside from a rain-shortened start against the Blue Jays, he’s gone at least six innings in every start except his last in Texas, where he threw five shutout innings.
Over his last seven starts, Ryan has posted a 28.7 K-BB% with a 94.1 mph average velocity on a fastball with a 63 PitchingBot grade and 123 Pitching+.
Ryan’s overall pitch modeling marks over this span are a 2.75 Bot ERA and 115 Pitching+, which align with his 2.82 xFIP and 2.83 xERA.
This will be the supreme test, though, won’t it?
While Ryan has been a bit worse against LHBs, he’s still holding them below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA this year.
The Dodgers will likely send seven up against him, the worst of which has been Kyle Tucker (98 wRC+ against RHP), excluding Tommy Edman, who’s just getting his feet wet.
Tucker is also the worst among those projected with a 78 wRC+ over the last month among a unit averaging a 132 wRC+ against RHP and 131 over the last 30 days.
At -4 Net Bases Prevented, Ryan is one of the worst at holding runners with them taking off on 2.6% of opportunities and Victor Caratini (-5 Catchers CS Above Average) has been the worst throwing catcher in the league, catching just three of 30 attempted steals.
If the Twins play their standard lineup against LHP, Alex Jackson (-1 CSAA, 11% CS) may be just as bad as Caratini on a pro-rated basis.
However, the Dodgers don’t run. They don’t have to. Only 31 stolen bases is a bottom-five total in the league, but perhaps they’ll find the need against Ryan.
Andy Pages leads the team with 8 SB, but nobody on the team has accumulated a Run via Stolen Base (Statcast) and only Shohei Ohtani has more than 0 BRR.
The Twins are a bottom-five defense by Runs Prevented (-13) or OAA (-17). If we project their standard lineup against LHP, it’s -9 FRV. Brooks Lee (-5), Luke Keaschall (-3) and Jackson (-3) are the worst offenders. Buxton (2) and Austin Martin (3) have been the top defenders in this lineup split.
The Minnesota bullpen has been even worse than the Dodgers by actual results over the last month with not only a 5.88 ERA, but the seventh-worst estimators in the league (5.00 FIP, 4.57 xFIP, 4.17 SIERA).
BARTOLO likes them enough to rank them 17th with a 4.15 wFIP (which may be updated for Monday by the time you see it).
Dodgers vs Twins Pick, Betting Analysis
Target Field is one of the sneaky high-run environments in the league with a 106 Park Run Factor via Statcast (3-year rolling), though it suppresses left-handed home runs by 4% and right-handed home runs by 2%.
While the current forecast shouldn’t impact the run scoring much (potentially slightly negative), the larger problem might be rain.
Lance Barksdale is the scheduled umpire and his presence behind the plate has generally increased run scoring by nearly 4%.
I have Wrobleski tentatively projected around four and Ryan much more confidently around four-fifths of a run lower.
I give the Dodgers slightly more than a 20-point wRC+ edge on the Twins (still assuming the standard LHP lineup).
The Dodgers have a much better defense and bullpen with neither team standing out positively or negatively on the base paths.
These factors have resulted in my projecting a near nine-run total, which is a bit above the current total of 8.5.
Projecting the Dodgers as slight full-game favorites with a near-even F5 is even more aligned with the market.
In addition to my alignment with the market, the potential volatility within Wrobleski, the Minnesota lineup and even weather leaves me with no actionable play to recommend here, nor even a strong lean.
I hate to do it, but I don’t want to throw something out there just for the sake of action.
Perhaps there's a live play to be found by watching Wrobleski's in-game velocity, but going nearly three months before my first full pass isn’t bad.
Pick: Pass
