The St. Louis Cardinals host the Chicago Cubs on August 10, 2025. First pitch from Busch Stadium is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Cubs are slight favorites in Sunday's rubber match, which will feature a high-quality pitching matchup with Shota Imanaga (3.12 ERA, 89 and 1/3 IP) facing off against Sonny Gray (4.21 ERA, 128 and 1/3 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Cubs vs Cardinals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction
- Cubs vs Cardinals pick: Cubs Moneyline (-120 | Play to -130)
My Cubs vs Cardinals best bet is on the Cubs moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Cardinals Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8 -102o / -118u | -120 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8 -102o / -118u | +100 |
Cubs vs Cardinals Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Shota Imanaga (CHC) | Stat | RHP Sonny Gray (SL) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | W-L | 10-5 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.0 |
| 3.12 / 3.66 | ERA / xERA | 4.21 / 3.74 |
| 4.47 / 4.59 | FIP / xFIP | 3.09 / 2.95 |
| 1.00 | WHIP | 1.17 |
| 15.0 | K-BB% | 22.8 |
| 27.9 | GB% | 41.1 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 109 | Location+ | 103 |
Nick Martin’s Cubs vs Cardinals Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: Offense Will Support Imanaga
Though the Cubs hold the second-best run differential and second-best expected record, they trail the Milwaukee Brewers by five games in the race for the NL Central, and Milwaukee ranks first in both of those categories.
FanGraphs projects the Cubs to win the division 25.3% of the time, while the current consensus odds offer the Cubs a 27.3% chasing down the red-hot Brewers.
Aside from a disastrous outing versus the Chicago White Sox, Imanaga has been in strong form since returning from a hamstring strain on June 26th. Across 44 and 2/3 innings since his return to the lineup, Imanaga has pitched to an ERA of 3.43 and holds a strikeout minus walk rate of 19.2%.
Imanaga's return to action on June 26th was versus the Cardinals at Busch Stadium, and he allowed just one hit and zero earned runs across five innings of work.
Imanaga does not appear to be quite as dominant as his 3.12 ERA and 1.00 WHIP suggest, and most of his underlying statistics have regressed compared to last season. He holds an xERA of 3.66, and his Pitching+ rating has dropped to 1o3 compared to last season's mark of 106.
While the Cubs bullpen has been solid overall this season and projects to be better than league average, Chicago's relievers have struggled to an ERA of 6.35 over the last 30 days. However, they rank 10th in xFIP during that span and hold the eighth-highest strikeout-minus-walk rate in the league during that span.
The Cubs hold the second-highest total of runs per game this season and are tied for first with a wRC+ of 114 across the entire season. They are also tied for first with a wRC+ of 116 against right-handed pitching this season.
Miguel Amaya is the only position player on the IL currently, so barring any starters resting, the Cubs will be fielding their top lineup in Sunday's matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview: Tough Matchup for Gray
Gray appears to have pitched at a higher level than his ERA suggests this season and enters this matchup off of one of his best starts of the year.
He allowed only one hit and one earned run in seven innings of work on Monday versus the Los Angeles Dodgers, after struggling in his first three starts following the All-Star break.
Gray holds an xERA of 3.66 and an xFIP of 2.95 throughout his 23 starts this season. He's struggled to an ERA of 7.33 in his last five starts, but his underlying metrics remain strong, as he's pitched to an xFIP of 2.90 and a Pitching+ rating of 106.
Brendan Donovan was scratched from Saturday's matchup, and his status for tonight is unclear at the time of writing. Nolan Arenado will also remain sidelined, but is expected to return sometime in the near future.
The Cardinals currently rank 14th in the league with a wRC+ of 94 versus left-handed pitching this season and rank 28th in hard-hit rate versus lefties.
St. Louis has been more productive of late versus southpaws, as it holds a wRC+ of 112 since July 1st, but a sky-high .372 BABIP seems to be the driving force in the turnaround.
Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction, Betting Analysis
Gray certainly appears to have pitched at a higher level than his overall ERA suggests this season, but even with that in mind, Gray and the Cardinals appear to be getting too much credit to be only slight favorites versus an elite Cubs team with Imanaga on the mound.
The Cubs have been the most productive team in the league versus right-handed pitching this season, and Gray is certainly facing a tougher test than Imanaga in this matchup.
Considering the higher upside of Chicago's lineup, -120 looks to be a pretty appealing price given that Gray does not appear to offer a significant edge over Imanaga.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (-120, BetMGM | Play to -130)
Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Cubs to win is my favorite play from this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Cubs to cover the run-line at +140 also looks to provide value.
Over/Under
A total of 8 looks accurate for this matchup.
