The San Francisco Giants host the Chicago White Sox on May 22, 2026. First pitch from Oracle Park is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CHSN.
The White Sox are favored by -112 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Giants are -104 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and White Sox vs Giants prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
White Sox vs Giants Prediction
- White Sox vs Giants Pick: Over 7.5
My White Sox vs Giants best bet is on game totals. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
White Sox vs Giants Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 7.5 -100o / -122u | -112 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 7.5 -100o / -122u | -104 |
- White Sox vs Giants moneyline: White Sox -112, Giants -104
- White Sox vs Giants over/under: 7.5 (-100 / -122)
- White Sox vs Giants spread: White Sox -1.5 (+158), Giants +1.5 (-192)
White Sox vs Giants Probable Pitchers
| RHP Davis Martin (CHW) | Stat | RHP Trevor McDonald (SFG) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | W-L | 2-0 |
| 2.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 1.61 / 3.66 | ERA / xERA | 2.37 / 3.79 |
| 2.39 / 2.99 | FIP / xFIP | 3.47 / 2.77 |
| 22.8% | K-BB% | 18.4% |
| 40.4% | GB% | 64.8% |
| .300 | BABIP | .269 |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 103 | Location+ | 105 |
White Sox vs Giants MLB Betting Preview
Chicago White Sox Betting Preview
The Chicago White Sox were on an absolute tear before heading out west for a six-game road trip, but now they're under a bit of pressure to turn things around with the lowly San Francisco Giants on the calendar this weekend.
The team certainly hasn't been reliant on its pitching, ranking 23rd in staff ERA for the year and the last two weeks, but one man they've come to trust is Davis Martin.
The 28-year-old appears to be in the midst of a full breakout, posting a spectacular 22.8-point discrepancy between his strikeout and walk rates which puts him 10 points better than average in that regard. The expert control coupled with a solid 27.4% punchout rate has been the main reason the right-hander has seen so much success, going 6-1 with a 1.61 ERA through nine starts, but around that, he still needs to improve.
Martin has never been much of a ground-ball pitcher, but this year, he is trending further away from worm-burners with a 59.2% rate of contact in the air. That's around four points higher than average, and three points above his career mark. His fly-ball rate has actually sunk down below the league average, however, and 30% of that air contact is coming on line drives — a clip that is decidedly higher than it should be.
That's why Martin's Expected ERA sits two runs higher than his results at 3.67, and considering his low 4.7% walk rate, that's actually a pretty poor number. It's important to remember that xERA is a direct translation from xwOBA, and wOBA will treat walks almost the same as hits.
Martin's .253 Expected Batting Average isn't good — he gives up a lot of troubling contact with a 45.5% hard-hit rate, and there are an inordinate number of line drives coming back into play. He may not be a massive liability to give up home runs or walks, which is generally a friendly profile in the modern game, but when he's not striking guys out, he's yet to prove he's a good pitcher.
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview
The Giants will counter with Trevor McDonald, a relatively unknown young pitcher prior to this year who has done nothing but produce results each time he's been called up to the big leagues. He's skewed pretty heavily towards ground balls throughout his minor-league career, and that's only seemed to grow more true as he's gotten more experience under his belt.
He's opened up the year with a 64.8% ground-ball rate through 19 innings — 20 points higher than average — and even with some regression to the mean he'll still leave little doubt as to what's going to happen on contact.
McDonald has been touched up a bit to the tune of a 48.1% hard-hit rate, which is one of the higher marks among all pitchers, but considering he was at 38.5% through 16 innings in Triple-A and kept it similarly low at the big-league level last year, I'm not too worried there.
The control has been impressive, as McDonald now owns a 4.1% walk rate throughout his 37 career innings in the bigs, and it comes after he walked 15 in 15 innings to start the year down in Triple-A. You never like to see that, of course, but it wouldn't seem as if those brief struggles are worth reading into.
What it really comes down to for the righty is whether or not his sinker will be producing outs, considering he's merely an average strikeout arm. The White Sox pack a huge punch in the power department and like to swing the bat, so a strike-thrower with exit velocity issues may not be the best man for the job here, but there's not a discernible difference in their splits versus ground-ballers and fly-ballers.
White Sox vs Giants Pick, Betting Analysis
Other than his first start against the Padres, a team with massive contact issues right now, McDonald hasn't exactly been piling up strikeouts. The White Sox do rank fourth-worst in that category, perhaps offering a bit of reprieve, but they do also hit the ball hard, ranking 11th in hard-hit rate and fifth in barrels per plate appearance.
Assuming McDonald faces 26 batters — which is what he's averaged in three starts — you're looking at about six strikeouts and probably 18 or 19 batted balls. The White Sox are hitting a poor .222 against ground-ballers this year, but they're slugging .408 which ranks third in baseball and puts them eight spots higher than they are in the reverse split.
McDonald's expected numbers aren't good enough, and his strikeout rate isn't high enough, to give me faith against a great offense like Chicago's. I expect some regression towards his .258 xBA and .397 xSLG.
I also expect a ton of regression for Martin. The Giants may not punch in the same weight class as the White Sox, but they're a free-swinging team that's walked in just 5.7% of plate appearances and has struck out at a low rate. It's often meant weak contact, leading to the seventh-highest ground-ball rate in the league, but when the team has had help elevating the ball, good things have happened.
San Francisco is currently out-slugging the entire league against fly-ball pitchers, and ranks just 27th against ground-ballers. That's something I have my eye on, considering the uptick in contact through the air versus Martin, and with the Giants finding plenty of success at the plate in the last two weeks, it would seem like a great time to buy into a good matchup.
You don't normally lean on Oracle Park for offense because it doesn't produce a ton of home runs, but it does rank seventh in Park Factor for doubles and fifth for triples. We're going to see a bunch of well-struck liners and fly-ners from both teams, and that should put runs on the board.
Pick: Over 7.5 (+100) | Play to 8 (-110)
