Happy Friday! Congrats on making it to the weekend.
You know I've got some bangers.
Specifically, 6 MLB home run picks today.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:07 PM | |
| 7:07 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
| 7:40 PM | |
  | 9:38 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Pirates vs Blue Jays Prediction
This is just a price play here for the Pirates' power lefties.
Gausman is a tough overall matchup and a below-average one for power, but the ballpark is a big upgrade for lefty power.
Cruz is having a bit of a breakout year, and I have the true odds around +370 today, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Oneil Cruz Home Run
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Pirates vs Blue Jays Best Bet
This is just a price play here for the Pirates' power lefties.
Gausman is a tough overall matchup and a below-average one for power, but the ballpark is a big upgrade for lefty power.
Lowe has been having a career on pace for around 40 bombs this season despite the bad weather and bad ballpark.
I have the true odds on Lowe around +400, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Brandon Lowe Home Run
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Dodgers vs Brewers Prediction
We don't have a large sample size for Logan Henderson in the majors, but in a small sample, he's been a massive fly-ball pitcher to lefties, giving up a 56% fly-ball rate.
He grades out as a well-above-average matchup for lefty power.
Freeman isn't the biggest power hitter, but given the great matchup, I have the true odds around +350 today, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Freddie Freeman Home Run
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Dodgers vs Brewers Best Bet
We don't have a large sample size for Logan Henderson in the majors, but in a small sample, he's been a massive fly-ball pitcher to lefties, giving up a 56% fly-ball rate.
He grades out as a well-above-average matchup for lefty power.
Muncy has been absolutely hammering the ball this season, and I have the true odds around +300, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Max Muncy Home Run
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Rangers vs Angels Prediction
Trout has been hammering the ball this season, and while he's been a little slower lately, the underlying numbers have been some of the best of his career for power.
The matchup vs. deGrom isn't a great one overall, but he's been a plus for power since joining the Rangers.
I have the true odds around +340 today, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Mike Trout Home Run
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Rockies vs Diamondbacks Prediction
Marte has been one of the more unlucky hitters in the league this season, and he should have several more bombs.
The dome is open today, and with temps in the 90s, the ball should be flying well.
Sugano is one of the best matchups in the league for power, and I have the true odds around +350 today, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Ketel Marte Home Run
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