The Miami Marlins host the New York Mets on May 22, 2026. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on WPIX.
The Mets are favored by -126 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Marlins are +105 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Marlins Prediction
- Mets vs Marlins Pick: Marlins Moneyline (+105)
My Mets vs Marlins best bet is on Miami to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Marlins Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 8 -102o / -119u | -126 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 8 -102o / -119u | +105 |
- Mets vs Marlins moneyline: Mets -126, Marlins +105
- Mets vs Marlins over/under: 8 (-102o / -119u)
- Mets vs Marlins spread: Mets -1.5 (+134), Marlins +1.5 (-162)
Mets vs Marlins Probable Pitchers
| RHP Tobias Myers (NYM) | Stat | RHP Eury Perez (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 2-6 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 3.41/3.02 | ERA / xERA | 5.33/5.06 |
| 4.38/3.98 | FIP / xFIP | 5.20/4.49 |
| 14.8% | K-BB% | 13.0% |
| 35.3% | GB% | 34.5% |
| .235 | BABIP | .277 |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 116 |
| 99 | Location+ | 90 |
Mets vs Marlins MLB Betting Preview
Eury Perez is one of the unluckier starters in baseball this season. His 5.33 ERA is backed by a 4.49 xFIP and a 4.22 SIERA. Neither peripheral stat is categorically "good", but a significant difference leads to eventual regression.
The Marlins starter has the stuff to be a much better pitcher, yet he has not put it together. Fortunately, he does not have to be much different to succeed in tonight's game. Perez is a much different pitcher at home than on the road. Whether it be due to comfort and/or trust, we cannot say, but there is a notable improvement at LoanDepot Park.
- Perez at home: 3.86 ERA, 18.6% K-BB, 1.18 WHIP, 3.89 xFIP
- Perez on the road: 7.03 ERA, 7.1% K-BB, 1.68 WHIP, 5.18 xFIP
The samples for both splits are small (under 30 IP), but the difference is intriguing as Perez does not have bad luck driving his road stats.
Furthermore, facing a Mets offense ranking fifth-worst against right-handed pitching this season should help him bounce back.
The Mets will be trotting out opener Tobias Myers, with long-man Sean Manaea piggybacking. Myers has pitched well this season, but in shorter stints. He has not thrown three innings since April 10.
Meanwhile, Sean Manaea is one of the worst pitchers in baseball, with declining velocity and stuff. With the Marlins ranking league-average against RHP and LHP, they will be ready for either pitcher.
Both teams have rested bullpens, but the pitching advantage lies heavily with the Marlins.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline (+105)
