The Boston Red Sox host the Minnesota Twins on May 22, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Red Sox are favored by -148 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Twins are +126 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Twins vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Twins vs Red Sox Prediction
- Twins vs Red Sox Pick: Under 7.5 (-105 or Better)
My Twins vs Red Sox best bet is Under 7.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Red Sox Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +126 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -148 |
- Twins vs Red Sox moneyline: Twins +126, Red Sox -148
- Twins vs Red Sox over/under: 7.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Twins vs Red Sox spread: Twins +1.5 (-176), Red Sox -1.5 (+146)
Twins vs Red Sox Probable Pitchers
| LHP Connor Prielipp (MIN) | Stat | LHP Payton Tolle (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 2.88 / 3.06 | ERA / xERA | 2.05 / 2.44 |
| 4.18 / 3.84 | FIP / xFIP | 3.20 / 3.81 |
| 19.6 | K-BB% | 20.0 |
| 38.7 | GB% | 31.1 |
| .190 | BABIP | .189 |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 110 |
| 104 | Location+ | 94 |
Twins vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
The Northeast is going to get much chillier than it was earlier in this week. It will be 55 degrees at game time in Boston and 52 degrees later in the game. Wind will be blowing as well.
So the temperatures knocked down my projected total, but I also like both of these young lefties: the Twins' Connor Prielipp, a guy we bet on a bunch of the season, and the same with the Red Sox's Payton Tolle.
To this point of the season, I have both of these guys as top-40 starting pitchers. I have Tolle at 29 and Prielipp at 39. I actually think Prielipp might be a touch better than Tolle, based on what they've done to this point in the season.
Both guys have a near 20 % strikeout-minus-walk rate, at the level of a number two starter. If you look at my rankings for them this season, it kind of confirms that both of these guys have quality stuff.
They should keep opposing lineups in check because these are a pair of below-average offenses, particularly against left-handed pitching.
I actually have both at 96 wRC+ against lefties, based on the current hitters in the lineups.
Twins vs Red Sox Pick, Betting Analysis
I make this total about 7.2. I bet under 8, down to about 7.5, at -105.
This did open at 8.5 and has come down.
So directionally, not just this total, all the totals that I bet have seen move a half-run or a run in my direction overnight, which you do love to see in terms of the closing line value.
If you've tailed me over the past few days, we've been crushing it on unders.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-105, FanDuel)
