The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Cincinnati Reds on September 30, 2025. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 9:08 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Reds vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Reds vs Dodgers Prediction
- Reds vs Dodgers picks: Dodgers -1.5
My Reds vs Dodgers best bet is on Los Angeles to cover the run line. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Dodgers Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 7 -115o / -105u | +165 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 7 -115o / -105u | -200 |
Reds vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Hunter Greene (CIN) | Stat | LHP Blake Snell (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | W-L | 5-4 |
| 2.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.9 |
| 2.76/3.09 | ERA /xERA | 2.35/3.20 |
| 3.28/3.27 | FIP / xFIP | 2.70/3.07 |
| 0.94 | WHIP | 1.26 |
| 25.2% | K-BB% | 18.1% |
| 34.2% | GB% | 50.6% |
| 124 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 102 | Location+ | 112 |
Kenny Ducey’s Reds vs Dodgers Preview
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
Hunter Greene picked right back up where he left off following a mid-season injury, finishing with a 2.64 ERA in September and a handsome 38 strikeouts in 30 2/3 frames. He's seen some control issues creep in, but on the whole has been solid this season when it comes to limiting walks, and the strikeout stuff has been legit.
Greene hasn't given us a full season's worth of data to work with, but it's pretty evident after last year who he is. He will blow you away with a simple three-pitch mix which features the fastball heavily, and while he will pitch to fly balls he won't necessarily be victimized by the home run all that much despite pitching in such a small home park.
Greene was knocked around by the Dodgers in L.A. just one month ago, when he surrendered two home runs and posted a 3:2 K:BB in what was his worst start of the year. He was only charged with three earned runs, but gave up five in all, and the .453 Expected Slugging told the tale of a man who was harmed greatly when the ball went back into play.
It's certainly worth noting that Greene's expected numbers took a bit of a hike in September after a solid return to the hill in August, but as we covered above, it's not like he lost strikeouts. Missing bats is going to be a key here yet again.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview
Dave Roberts is already cooking this postseason, neglecting to name a starter for the Dodgers' very first game. We are quite certain that it'll be Blake Snell, and that's meant great things for L.A. this season.
Snell has only pitched 11 times, but his numbers closely mirror the pitcher he's been for years. There's certainly some room for more strikeouts, considering the lefty is wearing a 28.3% strikeout rate, which misses his 2024 mark by over six percentage points, but it's also not like that's a bad number at all. Walks will hurt him, but on average, he's still not producing many hit-worthy balls in play with a .231 xBA through 61 1/3 innings.
The important note regarding Snell is that he's transformed back into a ground-ball pitcher after pitching the other way around in San Diego and San Francisco. It certainly makes a lot of sense given the different nature of his home park, and with that change in mind, the .231 xBA actually looks quite nice when you compare it to most ground-ballers.
Unlike Greene, Snell hasn't had the pleasure of facing the Reds this season, but when he steps to the mound, he'll draw the fifth-worst offense against lefties by wRC+.
Reds vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Dodgers have performed pretty well against high heat this season, ranking fifth in xBA against 97+ mph fastballs from righties and first in Expected Slugging. That's part of the reason they were able to get to Greene last month, and while their whiff rate isn't stellar by any means in this split they were only retired on strikes three times versus the righty.
The Dodgers had the fourth-best second half of any team by wRC+, and while they experienced some turbulence in the plate discipline department, they ultimately finished that segment of the year with a tidy-enough 21.8% strikeout rate to go along with another strong .187 Isolated Power.
Considering L.A. was the fourth-best team against fly ball pitchers this year and owns a top-five home run-to-fly ball ratio with good strikeout numbers, in a matchup like this we simply can't be overlooking them.
I realize that's what many would say about the Reds, but they've struggled with lefties this season and haven't seen any noticeable increase in production against fly-ball arms. Even if their 19.8% strikeout rate in the second half is quite low, the Dodgers' infield finished the season ranked eighth in Outs Above Average, and led the league in September with several names returning to the lineup.
L.A.'s defense — and its solid projection offensively — should remove any doubts about the winner of this one.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (+110) | Play to -110
Moneyline
I don't see value on either side of the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
As mentioned, I like the Dodgers to cover in Game 1.
Over/Under
I'm also staying away from Over/Under bets.
