The Milwaukee Brewers host the Cincinnati Reds on July 1, 2026. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on -.
The Brewers are favored by -166 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +140 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Reds vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Reds vs Brewers Prediction
- Reds vs Brewers Pick: Over 9 (-110)
My Reds vs Brewers best bet is on the run total over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Brewers Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 9 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +126 | 9 -110o / -110u | -166 |
- Reds vs Brewers moneyline: Reds +140, Brewers -166
- Reds vs Brewers over/under: 9 (-110o / -110u)
- Reds vs Brewers spread: Reds +1.5 (-152), Brewers -1.5 (+126)
Reds vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| LHP Andrew Abbott (CIN) | Stat | LHP Shane Drohan (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-4 | W-L | 3-2 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 3.90/4.83 | ERA / xERA | 3.12/3.32 |
| 5.05/4.82 | FIP / xFIP | 3.14/3.73 |
| 7.7% | K-BB% | 16.1% |
| 39.9% | GB% | 42.9% |
| .272 | BABIP | .299 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 101 | Location+ | 105 |
Reds vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview
Reds vs Brewers Pick, Betting Analysis
The market is telling a story in Milwaukee tonight, and it's one worth listening to. While casual bettors may see two southpaws with respectable ERAs, they tend to assume a lower-scoring game. However, the sharper money has pushed this total upward. To me, this is an excellent spot to fade both starters.
Let’s start with Andrew Abbott.
His 3.90 ERA looks solid on the surface, but the underlying indicators suggest regression is looming. Abbott owns a 5.05 FIP and a 4.80 xERA, both signaling that his run prevention has been aided by favorable sequencing and batted-ball luck. His strikeout rate has dipped to just 17.5%, while his walk rate has crept above 9%, leaving him with a below-average K-BB%. Even more concerning is his 41% hard-hit rate and 1.4 HR/9, which becomes problematic against a Brewers lineup that ranks top-10 in MLB in hard-hit rate (around 40%) and carries a .325 team wOBA at home.
Milwaukee also just saw Abbott recently and handled him well, tagging him for eight hits and three runs in under six innings. Familiarity tends to benefit hitters, especially when the pitcher lacks swing-and-miss stuff. The Brewers rank top-12 in contact rate and have posted a .260 team batting average against left-handed pitching, along with a .430 slugging percentage in that split.
On the other side is rookie Shane Drohan.
Drohan’s 3.12 ERA and 3.15 FIP look impressive, but there are warning signs here as well. His 10.5% walk rate and 1.35 WHIP indicate he’s consistently pitching with traffic on the bases. In his last outing against Cincinnati, he allowed eight baserunners (five hits, three walks) in fewer than five innings, escaping without damage largely due to sequencing luck. His 4.20 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat fortunate, and facing the same lineup twice in a short span rarely favors a young pitcher.
Cincinnati’s offense has quietly been productive, especially against left-handed pitching. The Reds carry a .335 wOBA and a 108 wRC+ versus southpaws, along with a strong 10% walk rate that plays directly into Drohan’s command issues. Elly De La Cruz brings elite power-speed upside with a .480 slugging percentage, while Matt McLain and Spencer Steer both own OPS marks north of .800 against lefties. Tyler Stephenson adds a high-contact bat with a low strikeout rate, helping extend innings and create scoring opportunities.
Milwaukee’s offense is sneaky dangerous, especially at home. The Brewers rank top-10 in MLB in OBP (.325) and have been particularly effective at home, where their OPS climbs above .750. William Contreras leads the charge with a .380 OBP and .500 slugging percentage, while Christian Yelich continues to post elite on-base numbers with a walk rate near 13%. Jackson Chourio’s 45% hard-hit rate and Andrew Vaughn’s .470 slugging percentage provide additional power threats in the middle of the lineup.
Both teams also excel at creating traffic. Cincinnati ranks top-8 in stolen bases, adding pressure once runners reach base, while Milwaukee sits top-10 in walk rate. These are offenses that don’t rely solely on home runs—they manufacture runs through baserunners, extra-base hits, and sustained innings.
Abbott’s regression indicators and Drohan’s command issues both point toward scoring opportunities on both sides.
Give me baserunners, hard contact, and plenty of scoring chances in Milwaukee.
Pick: Over 9 (-110)
