The Boston Red Sox host the Detroit Tigers on April 20, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 11:10 a.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on DSN.
The Red Sox are favored by -130 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Tigers are +110 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Tigers vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Tigers vs Red Sox Prediction
- Tigers vs Red Sox Pick: Over 8
My Tigers vs Red Sox best bet is on the Over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Red Sox Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 8 -115o / -105u | +110 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 8 -115o / -105u | -130 |
- Tigers vs Red Sox moneyline: Tigers +110, Red Sox -130
- Tigers vs Red Sox over/under: 8 (-115 / -105)
- Tigers vs Red Sox spread: Tigers +1.5 (-196), Red Sox -1.5 (+162)
Tigers vs Red Sox Pitchers
| Jack Flaherty (RHP) | Stat | Sonny Gray (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 4.05 / 4.74 | ERA / xERA | 4.43 / 5.31 |
| 4.22 / 5.16 | FIP / xFIP | 4.70 / 4.20 |
| 1.40 | WHIP | 1.28 |
| 8.0% | K-BB% | 8.0% |
| 32.7% | GB% | 55.6% |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 90 | Location+ | 97 |
Tigers vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
The Tigers made easy work of the Red Sox for a second straight game.
Jack Flaherty will look to build momentum upon his last two outings after holding the Twins and Royals to a run each.
The veteran right-hander owns a 4.05 ERA, but his 4.74 xERA and 4.22 FIP signal looming regression. Going deep into games has been an issue for Flaherty, as he finished a full six innings just once and failed to finish five innings in two of four starts.
Walks have been the main culprit for Flaherty's shorter outings, issuing 6.30 BB/9. He walked three or more hitters in all four outings, but also punched out six or more in three of his starts.
When opponents hit the ball, it's usually in the air against Flaherty, as his ground-ball rate is 34%. Despite that, he's given up just one homer, so expect the long balls to come.
The Tigers' lineup loves to hit right-handed pitching, ranking 12th among MLB teams with a 109 wRC+ against the side.
The best part about facing a righty? Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter will be in the lineup, and those two are usually their two best hitter. Rookie stud Kevin McGonigle leads the team with a 156 wRC+, but he's also a lefty, just with better overall splits.
They also rank 16th in walk rate and 17th in strikeout rate. Both are just below the league average, but neither is bad enough to warrant real concern.
The rabid fans in Boston are beginning to feel restless about the Red Sox's 8-13 start. But they can salvage this series with a win on Marathon Monday.
Sonny Gray seems to be nearing the twilight of his lengthy MLB career. Now 36 years old, Gray has seen a sharp decline in his K/9 from 2025 to 2026, dropping from 10.01 to 4.89 with Boston. His whiff rate is down to 19.5% (16th percentile), and his chase rate is just 26.2% (26th percentile).
It seems the pitching brain trust in Boston wants Gray to get more groundballs, as his ground-ball rate is up to 55%, which would be the second-highest of his career (the other was 2014 with Oakland). I don't think he's a better pitcher for it, though.
He has a 4.43 ERA with a 5.31 xERA and a 4.70 FIP to go with a .295 xBA. The expected numbers are none too fond of the changes Gray is going for, and neither am I.
The Red Sox have struggled to put together any offensive success this year, ranking 25th among MLB lineups with an 85 wRC+. They have just 12 home runs this year, which is last in baseball. Only three Boston hitters (Willson Contreras, Trevor Story, and Wilyer Abreu) have multiple homers.
The idea behind this Boston team was that it had too many outfielders and needed different spots to play them. However, Jarren Duran is hitting .172 with a 46 wRC+, and Roman Anthony has a 96 wRC+. That duo hits too high in the lineup to be playing that poorly, and for the Red Sox to have success.
I think it'll eventually turn, though.
I'm not a huge fan of either starting pitcher on Monday. Flaherty can bail the struggling Red Sox out with walks, while Gray's close to .300 xBA could be exposed by a Tigers squad that ranks middle of the pack in strikeouts.
After a trio of lower-scoring games between these two, I expect a high-scoring tilt in game four.
Pick: Over 8
