The New York Mets host the Detroit Tigers on May 14, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Mets are favored by -180 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Tigers are +152 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Tigers vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Tigers vs Mets Prediction
- Tigers vs Mets Pick: Tigers ML (+130 or Better)
My Tigers vs Mets best bet is on Detroit to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Mets Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -146 | 7.5 -108o / -112u | +152 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 7.5 -108o / -112u | -180 |
- Tigers vs Mets moneyline: Tigers +152, Mets -165
- Tigers vs Mets over/under: 7.5 (-109o / -111u)
- Tigers vs Mets spread: Mets -1.5 (+122), Tigers +1.5 (-146)
Tigers vs Mets Probable Pitchers
| Keider Montero (RHP, DET) | Stat | Nolan McLean (RHP, NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 3.18 / 3.33 | ERA / xERA | 2.78 / 2.33 |
| 3.24 / 4.56 | FIP / xFIP | 2.39 / 2.52 |
| 13.5% | K-BB% | 25.7% |
| 30.8% | GB% | 46.2% |
| .235 | BABIP | .257 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 104 | Location+ | 103 |
Tigers vs Mets MLB Betting Preview
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
In Major League Baseball, road underdogs playing interleague games have historically been undervalued by oddsmakers.
Since 2016, despite winning only 43.1% of these games, these teams have generated a consistent positive ROI.
This trend has proven reliable across five consecutive seasons, indicating market inefficiencies in how these specific matchups are priced — likely due to lack of familiarity between leagues and public overconfidence in home and favorite teams.
Tigers vs Mets Pick, Betting Analysis
Hey, I like Nolan McLean as much as the next guy. But I struggle to imagine why the Mets should be laying over -150 with him on the mound, especially against a team as talented as Detroit.
It’s pretty much impossible to make the argument that Keider Montero is a better starting pitcher. However, he’s close to a league-average guy (4.56 xFIP, 4.07 botERA, 1.0 fWAR), and that should be enough for the Tigers to capitalize on their other advantages.
Specifically, I think the Tigers have a significant advantage in position players.
Detroit’s a fine offense. The Tigers boast a top-10 offense by wRC+ (102), hit slightly better against righties (105), and hit the ball in the air a ton (42%, fifth in MLB). Throw in their double-digit walk rate and barrel rate, and it’s easy to see why Detroit ranks fifth among MLB lineups in Jon Anderson’s expected wOBA over expectation stat (+.004), which incorporates opposing pitchers’ stuff into the numbers.
Meanwhile, the Mets have been the worst offense in baseball this season by both fWAR (0.8) and wRC+ (83), and things haven’t been getting better (83 wRC+ over the past three weeks, also last). They’re slightly better against right-handed pitching (86 wRC+), but their batted-ball profile is actually worse against that side (7% barrel rate, 32% fly-ball rate, -.020 xwOBA over expectation).
While Detroit has graded out as a worse defensive team this season, I actually project them as the better defensive team in the long run, mainly because I don’t believe the Mets are a very good defensive team.
The injuries to Francisco Alvarez and Francisco Lindor also hurt, both on offense and defense.
The Tigers will be at a significant pitching disadvantage across all nine innings, but given their other advantages, I’m willing to take a stab with them as undervalued interleague road pups.
Pick: Tigers ML (+130 or Better)
