The Seattle Mariners host the Detroit Tigers on October 4, 2025. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 8:38 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1.
Find my MLB betting preview and Tigers vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Tigers vs Mariners Prediction
- Tigers vs Mariners picks: Over 6.5 (-135) | Play to Over 7 (-110)
My Tigers vs Mariners best bet is the over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Mariners Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 7 -105o / -115u | +160 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 7 -105o / -115u | -190 |
Tigers vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| Troy Melton (DET) | Stat | George Kirby (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | W-L | 10-8 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.4 |
| 2.76/3.72 | ERA /xERA | 4.21/3.85 |
| 4.60/4.53 | FIP / xFIP | 3.25/3.48 |
| 1.01 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 11.7 | K-BB% | 20.6 |
| 43.8 | GB% | 44.4 |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 97 | Location+ | 113 |
Kenny Ducey’s Tigers vs Mariners Preview
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Defense May Plague Tigers' Pen
We haven’t seen Troy Melton pitch since he blew Game 2 of the Wild Card Series on Wednesday out of the bullpen, but the youngster will get another opportunity to showcase his talents on Saturday.
Melton had a rookie year filled with promise, even if it lasted just over 45 innings. He finished with a .221 Expected Batting Average, operating as more of a ground-ball pitcher, and while the strikeout and walk numbers look rather pedestrian, he did flash some strikeout upside in a couple of impressive starts.
He then moved back to the bullpen, where he caught the same bug that ailed most of the Tigers' relievers in September. They ranked 23rd with a 4.30 ERA, although the Wild Card Series was somewhat more favorable to them, as many high-leverage players stepped up, and they finished with a 2.45 xERA alongside their 4.22 ERA.
We can expect to see plenty of relievers work behind Melton, considering the rookie isn’t fully stretched out, and that means ground balls. This stable carried a 50% ground ball rate in September — one of the highest in baseball — and that comes with great risk as the Tigers rank 22nd in Outs Above Average in the infield.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Kirby Primed to Thrive
The Mariners are hoping their plan of attack carries a bit more stability as they hand the ball over to George Kirby in Game 1. The right-hander, like many of the Mariners’ arms, was great at home with a 3.38 ERA, which was a near-two-run improvement over the reverse split, but he did so with a decent 44.4% ground-ball rate.
That’s always dicey on this team as the Mariners’ infield ranks second-worst in OAA, but Kirby’s strong strikeout and walk numbers have made that more or less a non-factor. Still, Seattle's bullpen does roll up just as many grounders as Detroit, and the Tigers have been contact-reliant in the last month with poor power numbers and a hefty strikeout rate over 25%.
Nothing really scares you off Kirby in this spot. His strikeout rate spiked over 30% in September, accompanied by a sub-4% walk rate, and the expected numbers have remained consistent. He’ll hope the recent struggles of Detroit’s offense and his home park bring him all he needs.
Tigers vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
I know the Tigers have struggled to hit, and Kirby has been great, but it’s really hard for me to look past the Over here with so many ground balls projected to be on the menu here. Both bullpens aim for contact on the ground, and Kirby’s remained steadfast in his pursuit of gopher balls.
We know both infields are bad, and both offenses often times succumb to hunting down home runs, so I do think this could wind up turning things around for Detroit. Even if it’s just a couple of runs, I don’t think this promises to be an easy one for the Tigers’ pitching staff to navigate, with Seattle finishing the season with the best numbers in the game in September and Detroit falling short.
Seattle does hit ground-ball pitchers better than fly-ballers by OPS, too, and I think with that, both teams should populate the bases all game long.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-135) | Play to Over 7 (-110)
Moneyline
No play.
Run Line (Spread)
No play.
Over/Under
Take the Over in Game 1.
Tigers vs Mariners Betting Trends
