The Texas Rangers host the Detroit Tigers on July 18, 2025. First pitch from Globe Life Field is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FDSDET.
After a disappointing start to the campaign, Texas currently sits 3.5 games back of the final AL wild card spot and has just a 17.3% chance of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs.
The Rangers are slight betting favorites in game one of this series, as Reese Olson (2.95 ERA, 58 IP) will face off against Patrick Corbin (4.15 ERA, 93 1/3 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Tigers vs Rangers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Tigers vs Rangers Prediction
- Tigers vs Rangers picks: Tigers ML -105 (bet365, Play to -115)
My Tigers vs Rangers best bet is Tigers moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Rangers Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | -110 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | -110 |
Tigers vs Rangers Projected Starting Pitchers
| Reese Olson (DET) | Stat | Patrick Corbin (TEX) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | W-L | 6-7 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 2.95 / 3.83 | ERA /xERA | 4.15 / 4.61 |
| 3.20 / 3.89 | FIP / xFIP | 4.35 / 4.11 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.32 |
| 13.7 | K-BB% | 12 |
| 45.3 | GB% | 36.8 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 100 | Location+ | 103 |
Nick Martin’s Tigers vs Rangers Preview
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Lineup in Strong Shape
Thanks to their 59-38 start in what is once again a soft AL Central division, the Tigers currently have a 99.0% chance of making the playoffs, despite entering this series in the midst of a four-game losing skid.
They hold the best run differential in the American League (+87) and own an expected record of 57-40.
Detroit has scored runs on the road at the fourth-highest rate in baseball this season, and its lineup enters this matchup in good shape, as Kerry Carpenter is the only position player on the IL.
The Tigers' lineup will provide a difficult test for Corbin, as Detroit ranks third with a wRC+ of 116 versus left-handed pitching this season. The Tigers hold the fifth-best BB/K ratio versus lefties and also hold the fifth-lowest soft contact versus left-handed pitching.
Olson will be making his third start since returning from a finger injury on July 4. He's pitched to an ERA of 2.89 across 9 1/3 innings since returning, as well as a Pitching+ rating of 112.
Olson finished the 2024 campaign with a 3.53 ERA across 112 1/3 innings of work, as well as a 3.64 xERA and 3.72 xFIP. The young righty is off to a comparably strong start in 2025, as he holds an ERA of 2.95 and an xERA of 3.83.
He's allowed a slug rate of just .283 with runners on base, which has allowed him to outperform his expected ERA by a considerable margin. Even if he's to regress in that key aspect of the game, he still figures to be a better-than-average starter the rest of the way.
The Tigers' bullpen ranks 21st with an ERA of 4.13 and is 17th in xFIP. The bullpen is obviously well rested coming out of the All-Star break, which is noteworthy considering that Olson doesn't typically pitch deep into games.
Texas Rangers Betting Preview: Corbin in Much Better Position
After finishing with an ERA of 5.20 or greater in each of the last four seasons, Corbin is off to a much more respectable start this season, with a 4.66 ERA across his first 93 1/3 innings of work.
The underlying results agree with the idea that he's been much more effective this season, as he holds an xERA of 4.61 and an xFIP of 4.11.
His pitch metrics have also improved considerably, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 95 and a Pitching+ rating of 101.
In his past five starts, Corbin has been hard-hit 44% of the time and has allowed a xBA of .336. He held an ERA of 5.33 in those outings.
The Rangers' offense has been highly disappointing this season, entering this series ranked 25th in wRC+ and 24th in runs scored per game. They've been slightly more productive recently (wRC+ of 99 over the last 30 days), but they still rank 27th in hard-hit rate in that span and 19th in OPS.
Texas has struggled versus right-handed pitching, in particular, as it ranks 25th in wRC+ and 25th in weighted on base average.
Health has been part of the concern for the Rangers this season, and they'll still be without Jake Burger and Joc Pederson in this matchup.
Tigers vs Rangers Prediction, Betting Analysis
It's hard for me to see why the Rangers are getting so much respect entering this difficult matchup versus the AL-leading Tigers. Olson may not be as dominant the rest of the way, but it's still hard to dispute that he offers a fairly considerable edge over Corbin.
Corbin has been considerably less effective in his most recent starts and could be coming down to earth after a surprisingly strong start to the campaign.
Corbin will be facing a much more difficult test than Olson in this matchup too. The Tigers' lineup has been one of the best in the league versus left-handed pitching, while the Rangers have been among the league's worst units versus righties.
At -105, there looks to plenty of value in backing the Tigers to snap their four-game losing skid, and I would bet it down to -115.
Betting the Tigers to win the first five innings at -120 is another solid option, but I'd rather take a price of -105 to see if their rested bullpen can hold on once Olson exits the game.
Pick: Tigers ML -105 (Play to -115)
Moneyline
As outlined, betting the Tigers to win provides strong value and is my favorite play from this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Tigers to cover the reverse run-line at +140 is another strong option, and it would likely yield a similar EV to betting them to win the game.
Over/Under
A total of 8.5 looks fair given the pitcher friendly environment of Globe Life Field.
