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Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Odds, Picks, Predictions: Arizona Lineup Won’t Hang With Miami (May 4)

Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Odds, Picks, Predictions: Arizona Lineup Won’t Hang With Miami (May 4) article feature image
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Eric Espada/Getty Images. Pictured: Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Odds

Diamondbacks Odds +120
Marlins Odds -145
Over/Under 7.5
Time 12:40 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Arizona came into Miami and claimed back-to-back 5-4 victories. Now, in the series finale, the Diamondbacks have an opportunity to move to .500 in a season they started with an over/under betting total of 66.5 wins.

The D-Backs will send Madison Bumgarner to the mound, who has displayed some impressive form at 32 years old, pitching to a 1-1 record with a 1.17 ERA through 23 innings pitched.

The Marlins have managed an encouraging start themselves, playing to a 12-11 record. They’ll hope to get a better start today from Elieser Hernandez, who has struggled so far this season.

With Bumgarner’s numbers appearing far sharper than Hernandez, are the Marlins really worthy of being a -150 favorite here?

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona has scored 4.2 runs per game over its last eight games, during which it has gone 6-2. It’s suspicious that success will remain consistent given its underlying numbers, though.

The Diamondbacks rank 29th with a 77 wRC+ and 27th with a .277 wOBA. They have the lowest xBA in the league at .219% and the fifth-worst xSLG at .397. Coupling those numbers with Arizona’s preseason outlook, it’s safe to say we shouldn’t expect this strong play at the plate to remain consistent.

Bumgarner offers another area of expected regression for the D’backs. The veteran has managed to hold opponents to a below-average xBA and hard-hit rates this season. His fastball velocity is in the bottom 10th of qualifying MLB pitchers, with below-average spin rates on both his fastball and curveball. The result has been a strikeout rate of just 16%, paired with an 11.7% walk rate.

Bumgarner’s actual 1.17 ERA will definitely start trending up toward his 3.27 xERA, although I’d be surprised if either number remains lower than 3.5 throughout the entire season.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins have a .371 wOBA and +110 wRC+ rating in 835 plate appearances this season. A .425 xSLG and .333 xWOBA are positive signs that this lineup will continue to show more promise in 2022.

Hernandez has pitched to a rough 5.75 ERA this season, but his 3.53 xERA is a sign that things will get better. His 5.6% walk rate rate remains excellent and is paired with a solid 22.5% strikeout rate.

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Diamondbacks-Marlins Pick

This might be as good as it gets offensively for Arizona. Hernandez is due to find somewhat better results moving forward, and he will get an excellent opportunity to find some progress Wednesday against a team with the worst xBA in the league.

Bumgarner hasn’t looked better than we are used to seeing, and I feel we will see Miami find some offense early in this game. We haven’t seen him hit hard often this season, but the dreadful whiff and chase rates will become a problem eventually.

I am happy to run this bet deep into the game and back the strength of Miami’s lineup compared to the Diamondbacks over a larger sample.

Pick: Miami Marlins -1.5 (+140)

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