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Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Game One Odds, Picks, Predictions: Offenses Should Feast Against Madison Bumgarner, Josiah Gray (April 19)

Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Game One Odds, Picks, Predictions: Offenses Should Feast Against Madison Bumgarner, Josiah Gray (April 19) article feature image
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Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Madison Bumgarner

Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Odds

Diamondbacks Odds +120
Nationals Odds -140
Over/Under 8
Time 1:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Ernie Banks was famously in favor of playing doubleheaders, and his wishes will be fulfilled Tuesday in Washington D.C. On the mound in Game 1, we get a matchup between one of the stars of the last decade and a budding young right-hander as Madison Bumgarner and Josiah Gray will square off.

Each man will be looking to turn things around for their respective clubs as the Diamondbacks, and the Nationals have stumbled out of the gates. While the pitching matchup may be the highlight of this impromptu matinee, the bats could get an early start.

D’Backs To Capitalize On Gray’s Regression

Gray has shown plenty of flashes over his young career, and his last start against the defending World Series champions was just the latest addition. Gray held the Braves scoreless over five innings while allowing just one hit and striking out five. Although his last start turned some heads, his career numbers suggest he could come crashing down to earth.

For his career, Gray holds a 5.31 ERA and 5.81 FIP. We have seen two very different outings from the young righty, and despite his most recent performance, there are some underlying metrics that are going to come back to bite him.

Gray is in the bottom eight percent of the league in hard-hit rate allowed. More precisely, that hard-hit rate sits just over 59 percent, and of those hard hits, 45 percent have been made on the sweet spot of the bat.

Overall, the Diamondbacks have been dreadful to start the season. They are hitting just .152 as a team, and their BABIP is .196. However, this matchup against Gray could lead to a breakout. Not only has Gray allowed a good amount of solid contact, but in his young career, he has really struggled against lefties.

In 163 lefties faced, Gray has a 6.61 FIP and a WHIP of 1.50. It is no coincidence that the Arizona lineup is laced with left-handers as there are four natural lefties and five switch hitters slated to oppose Gray.

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Nationals’ Righties Set To Mash Against Bumgarner

As I eluded to in the open, both of these clubs have gotten off to rough starts offensively. However, the Nats lineup is set up perfectly to take advantage of a declining Bumgarner.

In his storied career, Bumgarner struggles particularly against right-handed hitters while on the road. In this split, his FIP jumps to 4.19, and his batting average against climbs to .254.

On top of that, Bumgarner also has some history against the current Nationals lineup. Through 64 at-bats, he’s held them to just a .219 average with only three extra-base hits allowed. However, in that sample size, he’s allowed an average exit velocity of 90.6, and if that continues, their expected stats will come to fruition. Their quality of contact has been expected to raise their batting average by 20 points and thier wOBA by 40 points.

Just as their opponents are aware of Gray’s splits, the Nationals know how to exploit MadBum. Their only left-handed hitter in the lineup is the great Juan Soto, and their lineup will feature Maikel Franco and Nelson Cruz, who have solid numbers against left-handed pitching.

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Diamondbacks-Nationals Pick

Both of these slumping lineups are in great spots to break out and set the bar high for Game 2 of this doubleheader. While the starters may not go very deep, the damage could be done early before the bullpens can put out the fire.

The first five over certainly deserve a look; however, our own Sean Zerillo projects the full game total at 9.06, which is a four percent edge over the current number. That is too much value to pass up, especially when the numbers back it up.

Pick: Over 8 (Play to 8.5)

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