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Thursday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Diamondback vs. Nationals: Fade Both Starting Pitchers in NL Matinee

Thursday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Diamondback vs. Nationals: Fade Both Starting Pitchers in NL Matinee article feature image
Credit:

AP Photo/Nick Wass. Pictured: Juan Soto

  • The Nationals are short home favorites on Thursday against the Diamondbacks.
  • After a big Arizona offensive outburst on Wednesday, will the Diamondbacks bats stay hot on Thursday?
  • Nick Shlain breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Odds

Diamondbacks Odds +110
Nationals Odds -130
Over/Under 8.5
Time 4:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Diamondbacks offense was sitting near the bottom of the league in runs scored, but they exploded for 11 runs in their win against the Nationals on Wednesday night. Arizona scored eight times in the first four innings, with seven runs (six earned) coming off Washington starting pitcher Erick Fedde.

Merrill Kelly held the Nationals offense to one run over six innings to earn his first win of the season, but with Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz and Josh Bell, this offense is capable of big things.

This afternoon’s pitching matchup of Kyle Davies and Josh Rogers should lead to some runs. Rogers’ career ERA in the majors is 5.30, and Davies’ ERA last year was 5.78.

Will Davies Turn It Around for the Diamondbacks?

Davies has a tough matchup with the Nationals in that any time he starts a game against any MLB team, it’s a tough matchup. His 5.78 ERA last year was terrible, and his 6.31 xERA was even worse. Last year he allowed a .197 ISO to right-handed batters and a .205 ISO to left-handed batters.

Everybody crushed him. Davies allowed two home runs in his last start on the road against the New York Mets, and consequently, the home run props for the  power bats in the Nationals lineup are certainly in play here.

Arizona catcher Daulton Varsho is hitting just .184 on the season, but he has given the Diamondbacks a big lift in this series as he’s hit two home runs in the previous three games.


Rogers Will Regress for the Nationals

While Rogers’ underlying numbers (5.58 x ERA) were terrible last year, his actual results were solid (3.28 ERA). It was only 35.2 innings, and he had a 91% Strand Rate while his Strikeout Percentage (14%) and Walk Percentage (9%) were too close for comfort.

There’s no evidence that he did anything but get lucky last year. So far this year in two starts, his Strikeout Percentage is actually down to 12%, and his Walk Percentage is up to 10%. Somehow, he hasn’t allowed a home run in those two starts after allowing 1.77 HR/9 last year.

The one positive to point to this year is that his Ground Ball Percentage is up to 45% from 29%. Still, his xFIP is 5.08 this year, and we know he’s due to give up some home runs here.

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Diamondbacks-Nationals Pick

This game’s going to go over the total – probably way over. These pitchers not only aren’t good, but they’re due to get hit.

The Diamondbacks lineup would usually be the one we might worry about showing up here, but we know their bats are hot after they scored 11 runs last night. I would scoop any 8.5 lines you see because I believe the line will move up to 9.0 by game time, but I got 8.5 at -120 on DraftKings.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-120)

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