Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks MLB Picks, Odds: Can Bumgarner, D-backs Recover From Thursday’s Blowout? (Friday, May 27)
Chris Coduto/Getty Images. Pictured: Trea Turner and Geraldo Perdomo
- The Dodgers are once again big favorites for tonight's game against the Diamondbacks.
- Madison Bumgarner takes the mound for Arizona and will opposed by LA's Ryan Pepiot.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Odds
|Over/Under||10 (-114 / -106)|
|Time||9:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
After the Dodgers ran away with Thursday’s series opener against the Diamondbacks in the first few innings, Arizona will be out for revenge here in the second of four against its division rival.
Does Friday’s pitching matchup offer any hope here for the home underdogs? Let’s take a closer look at this one.
Dodgers Offense Dominant
The Dodgers were shut out for the first time all season in a 1-0 loss to the Nationals on Wednesday, and they responded like only the Dodgers can. L.A. hung a season-high 14 runs in a massive win over the Diamondbacks, holding its opponent to just one run in the process.
L.A. managed a ridiculous 24 hits in 50 at-bats, but its .378 expected batting average according to Statcast came in slightly below the .480 batting average it did have in the end. Still, the results for this team are hard to call a fluke. The Dodgers are first in wRC+ this season and second in expected wOBA at Statcast.
We will need to talk about the Dodgers’ starter here, Ryan Pepiot. A third-rounder out of Butler in 2019, Pepiot will be making his third career start at the big-league level. He’s been fine with a 3.86 ERA and above-average 24.2% strikeout rate to this point, but he’s allowed three barrels in seven innings and has likely been fortunate to escape without much damage.
Diamondbacks Cooled Down On Thursday
Arizona was on a heater until it had to face Mitch White and the Dodgers bullpen. It entered this weekend series with five wins in six tries, scoring 17 runs in a two-game sweep of Kansas City, and promptly mustered up one run on a solo homer in Thursday’s loss.
With that being said, the Diamondbacks’ .422 expected batting average in that game told a different story. It seemed right in line with some of Arizona’s contact numbers lately; this lineup ranks seventh in hard-hit rate over the last week of play and seventh in barrel rate.
The Snakes have done well enough on offense with a 149 wRC+ over the last seven days that they haven’t needed much from their pitching staff. That’s what makes Friday’s game, started by Madison Bumgarner, so tantalizing.
The lefty owns s 2.76 ERA and 3.65 xERA, allowing a .348 xwOBA on contact — his lowest mark of the Statcast era, which began in 2015. Bumgarner has been excellent considering his age and his recent seasons, and while he’s not striking out many hitters he’s finally figured out how to pitch to contact with his fastballs.
I took a massive L on the Diamondbacks Thursday night, but I’m ready to get hurt again. This team is tearing it up at the plate right now, and its expected batting average from Thursday is a good indication that not much has changed.
Without Humberto Castellanos on the hill to fork over an early lead, I expect Arizona to get on the board against the inexperienced Pepiot and cruise behind the left arm of Bumgarner.
Pick: Diamondbacks First Five (+126)