Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Tuesday, August 8
Denis Poroy/Getty Images. Pictured: Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Odds
-115 / -105
-115 / -105
The Arizona Diamondbacks' magic has run out for the moment. They've now lost six straight and enter Tuesday in third place in the NL West. The story couldn't be any different for the Dodgers, who have won six of their last seven behind the hottest offense in baseball.
Can young Brandon Pfaadt quiet the Dodgers or will Los Angeles pick up another victory over a division rival? Let's break it down in our Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks preview and prediction.
This season has been an adventure for Julio Urias. After making a good case for the NL Cy Young Award over the last couple of years, the left-hander has very rarely looked like that pitcher in 2023.
Things might be starting to turn around for Urias, however. Yes, he's only a couple of weeks removed from surrendering eight runs in Baltimore, but prior to that he had allowed just two earned runs over 12 innings in his previous two starts and in his two starts since he's allowed three over 11 frames.
Best of all, the home run issues that had plagued Urias earlier in the year have seemed to dissipate. He's allowed just two since coming back from injury at the start of July and his ground ball rate has begun to climb to where it was a year ago.
Urias has posted a ground ball rate of 47.6% or better in three of his last four outings and with that his expected batting average has begun to crater, checking in under .200 in three of his last five starts.
There have been some starts where he's flashed his swing-and-miss ability, too, but the bottom line here is that he's pitching to contact a heck of a lot better than he had been.
Aside from Urias, there's not a whole lot more to say about this team that hasn't already been said. This offense has been simply stunning over the last month, and in the last 14 days they rank third in wRC+.
L.A. has hit .286 in the past 14 days with a blistering 10.2% walk rate and a low 19.7% strikeout rate. The Dodgers have posted a .205 Isolated Power but have hit just 17 home runs, showcasing their versatility at the dish.
We can't say the same for the Diamondbacks' offense. They've hit a league-worst eight homers over the last two weeks and while they've been able to avoid striking out a ton they've been waving at everything, walking in just 7.4% of plate appearances.
Worst of all, this team is hitting just .225 with a .268 BABIP, making it hard to chalk this all up to bad luck. Arizona has had poor plate appearances and has done no damage to speak of with a .119 ISO in the last 14 days.
That'll put the onus on Brandon Pfaadt to have a good start here. The 24-year-old has bounced around between Triple-A and the bigs this year and seems to finally be figuring it out, putting together his best start yet last week against the Giants. The right-hander went a season-high seven innings, allowing just a run on two hits with seven punchouts — also a season-best.
Pfaadt has been in control since returning to the major-league level, posting a 3.38 ERA in three starts with a ground ball rate up around 40% — something that's a welcomed sight considering his season-long mark stands at just 33.3%.
The only thing that may scare bettors here is the fact that Pfaadt has had tremendous issues limiting barrels this season and has allowed five home runs in his last three starts despite the good results.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Betting Pick
Limiting walks and racking up strikeouts has helped Pfaadt pitch around his home run issues over the last few starts, but given the way the Dodgers are hitting I'm not quite sure the rookie will be able to wiggle out of trouble here.
L.A.'s incredible walk and strikeout rates over the last two weeks, coupled with a solid ISO should give them a very good chance of hitting multiple homers here with runners on base.
I think Urias has made some major improvements in the last five starts, and he should be able to continue rolling up ground balls against a Diamondbacks team which has been swinging at everything of late.
I like the Dodgers a lot in this game, and with their bullpen well-rested I have no fears taking them on the moneyline here, even at an expensive price.
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