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Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks MLB Picks, Odds: Can Bettors Trust Kelly? (Saturday, May 28)

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks MLB Picks, Odds: Can Bettors Trust Kelly? (Saturday, May 28) article feature image
Credit:

Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Merrill Kelly.

  • The Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers meet in NL West action on Saturday night.
  • Merrill Kelly has been solid for the D-backs this season, but he gave up eight runs in two innings the last time he faced the Dodgers.
  • Check out Kenny Ducey's full betting guide for this NL West showdown below.

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Odds

Dodgers Odds -190
Diamondbacks Odds +155
Over/Under 9 (-105 / -115)
Time 7:15 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks promised to be a fun little rivalry this season with Arizona taking two out of three from LA earlier this season, but the NL West leaders have done all they can to make this as lopsided as possible.

The Dodgers have now taken six straight against the Diamondbacks, including the first two of this weekend set. Can Arizona respond on Saturday? Let’s take a deeper look.

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Can Tony Gonsolin Get It Done?

The Dodgers got it done behind Ryan Pepiot on Friday night, so seeing Tony Gonsolin trot out to the hill on Saturday might feel like an automatic win. The right-hander hasn’t been the ace of LA’s staff, but he’s been more than good enough to put the Dodgers in position to win.

Gonsolin has struck out seven in each of his last two starts, one of which came against these same Diamondbacks.

In fact, he’s faced Arizona twice and allowed four earned runs over 10 innings on six hits and three walks with 12 strikeouts. These aren’t the most convincing numbers, but once again, it’s worth noting the right-hander had Arizona’s number just a week and a half ago.

For the season, Gonsolin has been excellent at limiting damage, registering a career-best 23.5% hard-hit rate and an excellent 2.53 xERA.

If there’s one qualm here, it’s a 10.5% walk rate, which is even worse when put next to a 24.3% strikeout rate.


What to Expect From Merrill Kelly

The Snakes have been deadly at the plate of late. In the last two weeks, they’ve put together a 110 wRC+ to rank 12th in the league and walked in 9% of plate appearances during that time. They’re also 13th in hard-hit rate and 11th in barrel rate during those 14 days.

It’s not like this team have been elite, but it’s important to remember that we are talking about the Arizona Diamondbacks. A near top-10 ranking for this offense is a big deal considering the names in this offense.

Then, there’s Saturday’s starter, Merrill Kelly. He’s something of an enigma, convincing folks that he’s a solid starter before pulling the rug from under them with a bad outing.

I’m still of the belief that he’s very servicable, and his 3.49 ERA and 3.66 xERA — despite an eight-run blow up a couple of weeks ago — would back that up.

The only issue here is that the disastrous outing I’m referring to was against these same Dodgers. He surrendered the eight runs on five hits and four walks over two innings.

Dodgers-Diamondbacks Pick

Make no mistake about it, I believe in this Diamondbacks offense. The only issue here is that I’m not totally sure Kelly is going to fare a whole lot better against the Dodgers this time around.

He probably won’t surrender eight runs, but his struggles with walks this year are troubling against a team that gets on base as much as LA. I think we should see a healthy number of runs with both offenses getting it done at the dish.

Pick: Over 9 (-105)

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