The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 4, 2025. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet LA.
Find my MLB betting preview and Dodgers vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Dodgers vs Pirates Prediction
- Dodgers vs Pirates picks: Dodgers Moneyline
My Dodgers vs Pirates best bet is Dodgers moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Pirates Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -177 | 7 -100o / -120u | -123 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +145 | 7 -100o / -120u | +101 |
Dodgers vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| Blake Snell | Stat | Paul Skenes |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | W-L | 9-9 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 5.5 |
| 2.41 / 3.88 | ERA /xERA | 2.05 / 2.59 |
| 3.59 / 3.74 | FIP / xFIP | 2.47 / 3.10 |
| 1.37 | WHIP | 0.95 |
| 12.7% | K-BB% | 22.8% |
| 45.4% | GB% | 44.2% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 108 | Location+ | 111 |
The Betting Insider’s Dodgers vs Pirates Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview
The Dodgers head to PNC Park trying to halt a skid and avoid the sweep, and they’ll hand the ball to a former Cy Young Award winner who’s rounding back into form after an extended absence.
Blake Snell is set to make his eighth start of the season tonight, and he’s been impressive in his limited action. Snell’s surface line is tidy, with a 3-3 record and a 2.41 ERA across his first seven starts. Additionally, his contact profile leaves little to be desired: 86.9 mph average exit velocity allowed and a 32.4% hard-hit rate. He is doing just about everything you can ask for from a starting pitcher: missing bats, limiting hard contact, and inducing ground balls. The only problem he’s faced has been his control, which is nothing new for Snell and something he’s consistently been able to work around.
The Pirates are one of MLB’s least dangerous offenses and they struggle even more against left-handed pitching. They hold a .661 OPS on the season and a .631 OPS vs left-handed pitchers, both of which rank last in the league.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
Opposing Snell is Paul Skenes, who has continued to dominate since entering the league early last season. The 23-year-old ace is tracking toward every major awards ballot and often carrying the Pirates by himself, posting a 2.05 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP, with 187 strikeouts over 167 innings pitched.
He blanked the Dodgers over 6 1/3 scoreless innings with nine strikeouts at Dodger Stadium on April 25, but had allowed seven earned runs across their first two meetings. Skenes’ game plan remains familiar: a 99 mph-ish four-seamer he throws nearly 40% of the time, a vicious sweeper (~16%) that holds hitters to a .151 average, and an occasional split that plays off the heater. Statcast backs up the dominance, and even when batters make contact, they don’t exactly torch Skenes (about 87-88 mph average exit velocity, ~39% hard-hit). The challenge for Pittsburgh hasn’t been Skenes, it’s been giving him support. Despite his dominance, Skenes has a 9-9 record.
Dodgers vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
Normally, backing the Dodgers in September against a sub-.500 team would come at a steep premium, but the presence of Skenes on the mound has created rare value.
Oddsmakers are shading this line heavily toward the Pirates’ ace, and rightfully so given his Cy Young résumé, which leaves the Dodgers at one of their shortest prices all month. That discount doesn’t account enough for how poorly Pittsburgh’s bats have fared against left-handed pitching, or how often Skenes has been let down by run support.
System) Above .500 teams trying to avoid a sweep (63% win rate, 18% ROI)
The team’s win% is above 50%
The team has lost 2 or 3 consecutive games
The team’s ML is between -160 and +125
It is the 3rd game of the series
Game #70 or later
System) Favorites trying to avoid a sweep off of a shutout loss (74% win rate, 23% ROI)
The team has lost 2 or 3 consecutive games
The team’s ML is between -120 and -365
It is the 3rd game of the series
The team scored 0 runs in their previous game
These systems work because good teams very rarely allow themselves to be swept, particularly late in the season when every game carries added weight. When a lineup gets shut out, it usually sparks an immediate response, and the data shows that favorites in this exact spot deliver at a high clip. Oddsmakers still price these clubs as competitive for a reason — strong rosters tend to bounce back after consecutive losses, and the urgency of avoiding a sweep makes this a historically profitable angle.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline
