Dodgers vs. Rockies MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet on LA to Rebound (Wednesday, June 29)
Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured from left: Trea Turner #6 and Freddie Freeman #5 of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- The Colorado Rockies have had the Los Angeles Dodgers' number throughout the season and look to close out a series sweep on Wednesday night.
- The Dodgers send Julio Urias to the mound in hopes that his ability to limit hard contact will be the difference and turn the tables on the Rockies.
- Charlie DiSturco previews Dodgers vs. Rockies and provides his picks and predictions for Wednesday's game.
Dodgers vs. Rockies Odds
|Over/Under||11.5 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||8:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Colorado Rockies look to sweep the Los Angeles Dodgers at Coors Field on Wednesday night. Colorado has as already secured its second consecutive series win over LA in 2022.
The Dodgers have struggled against their division rivals — just 1-4 this season — and hope to bounce back behind Julio Urias. Meanwhile, Colorado sends a struggling German Marquez to the mound hoping to end June on a positive note.
Can LA rally behind Urias to avoid a series sweep, or will Colorado continue to have the Dodgers’ number this season?
Los Angeles Dodgers
Julio Urias looks to close out a dominant month of June on Wednesday night.
The left-hander has a 1.54 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 29 strikeouts in 23 1/3 innings spanning his four starting appearances. Urias has conceded more than one run just once.
Urias is an interesting pitcher when it comes to advanced metrics. He ranks in the top 3% of qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate, and opponents report a lowly .223 xBA against the southpaw.
However, he does have issues with the long ball. When he is hit hard, it’s normally barreled.
While Urias’ xERA (3.07) is just over a half-run higher than his actual ERA (2.48), his xFIP is all the way up at 3.97. He forces fewer ground balls than he did last season and has allowed way more home runs, which could be an issue at a place like Coors Field.
The last time Urias faced the Rockies was the first series of 2022, and he only lasted two innings, giving up six runs — three earned — on six hits.
It’s also interesting to note that — while he has more success against lefties at the plate — he has reverse splits when it comes to slugging. Eight of the 12 hits he’s given up to left-handed hitters have been home runs.
The Dodgers offense has been inconsistent throughout June but draws a more favorable matchup against a right-hander on Wednesday night. LA leads MLB in wRC+ and wOBA and ranks fifth in isolated power against right-handers.
German Marquez is a different pitcher in 2022 than in years past.
While there hasn’t been a change in velocity, the right-hander has struggled to limit hard contact, and his strikeout rate has dipped below 20% for the first time in his career.
In 14 starts, Marquez has a 5.58 ERA, and opponents boast an xBA of .280 and xSLG of .482. The majority of his struggles have come at Coors Field, where he’s given up 1.5 home runs per start and has a 6.70 ERA over 44 1/3 innings.
Marquez’s xFIP (4.00) is more than 1.5 runs lower than his actual ERA (5.58), but the majority of that difference may be attributed to the ballpark factor. His 4.70 xERA is a more accurate assessment of his performance this season.
On the road, he’s a more trustworthy option. But his struggles to generate swings and misses and to limit hard contact are a recipe for disaster at a park like Coors Field.
If there’s one thing that the Rockies offense does well, it’s hitting left-handed pitching. The splits are drastic: Colorado slashes .298/.362/.456 against lefties compared to .245/.309/.377 against righties.
The Rockies rank outside the top 10 in isolated power versus left-handed pitching, but they are no. 1 in wOBA and rank fifth in strikeout rate.
This is a harder game to cap due to the inflated total at Coors Field.
I think the Rockies have what it takes to get to Julio Urias — they did earlier this season — but I am more inclined to back LA’s bats to bounce back against Marquez to close out the series with a win.
The Dodgers offense has its struggles at times, but I trust them as much as any team against right-handed pitching. Marquez’s struggles at home are blatant, and I think that will continue on Wednesday night.
Meanwhile, Urias has been incredible during the month of June and limits hard contact at an elite rate — which is important at a ballpark like Coors Field.
If you are hesitant to back the run line, consider the Dodgers moneyline as a parlay piece with another large favorite. Nevertheless, I think LA should get the job done and cover the run line with ease against a struggling Marquez who has yet to find his stride at home.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-125, up to -130)