Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Nick Martin has that job for Tuesday, June 16.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Jesus Luzardo to Record A Win +130 (Bet365, Play to +120)
- Los Angeles Angels Moneyline -106 (FanDuel, Play to -116)
Marlins vs Phillies Picks
The Phillies continued to cut into the Braves' lead atop the NL East with a convincing 7-0 win in Monday's series opener and should have a good chance to earn another important win Tuesday with Jesus Luzardo on the mound.
Three of Luzardo's first four starts of the year were disastrous, but across his last 56 innings pitched, he's been dominant, pitching to an ERA of 2.89 with an xERA of 3.34. He's struck out 24% of batters in that span and been hard-hit just 27.7% of the time. Out of his last ten starts, he's picked up four wins and completed at least five innings nine times.
The Marlins hold a wRC+ of 98 versus left-handed pitching this season and have struck out 24% of the time while ranking 21st in hard-hit rate.
Tyler Phillips earned his first win as a starter Thursday versus the Diamondbacks and has enjoyed a nice start to the season so far in pitching to an xERA of 3.68 with an xFIP of 4.42. His stuff does not grade out overly well, though, and a huge part of his dominance has been a strand rate of 85%.
Philadelphia's bullpen ranks second in xFIP and first in strikeout-to-walk rate over the last 30 days, and the high-leverage arms are well rested entering Tuesday's matchup.
Based on Luzardo's recent form, he should have a good chance of leaving in line for a win, and if that is the case, I'm happy to trust Philadelphia's bullpen to hold and allow him to record his fifth win of the season.
Pick: Jesus Luzardo to Record a Win +130 (Bet365, Play to +120)
Angels vs Diamondbacks Picks
Though the Diamondbacks' lineup has much more upside than the Angels', it still doesn't seem as though the Diamondbacks deserve to be favored in a game with the 2026 version of Merrill Kelly on the mound.
Across 64 and 1/3 innings, Kelly has pitched to an xERA of 7.18 and an xFIP of 5.36. Kelly's Stuff+ rating is down from 92 to 87 year-over-year, which correlates with his significantly reduced strikeout rate, 15% barrel-rate, and 87% zone-contact rate. When he's pitched inside the zone, batters have squared him up quite consistently, which may be part of the reason his walk rate has spiked to 9.6%, as the veteran probably doesn't trust batters to miss anything left out over the plate.
Over his last eight starts, Detmers has allowed an xBA of .195, with an xERA of 2.78. He holds a Pitching+ rating of 111 in that span and has struck out 32.1% of batters faced.
The Angels have hit to a wRC+ of 103 over the last 30 days, and a wRC+ of 112 over the last 14 days. Though this recent run might be somewhat of a high-water mark for them based on the historical effectiveness of the bottom of their lineup, the Diamondbacks still seem to be overvalued in this matchup considering the huge gulf in effectiveness between Detmers and Kelly this season.
Pick: Angels Moneyline -106 (FanDuel, Play to -116)
Martin's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, June 16
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Jesus Luzardo to Record A Win +130 (Bet365, Play to +120)
- Los Angeles Angels Moneyline -106 (FanDuel, Play to -116)
