MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Braves vs. Marlins, Twins vs. Royals, More Expert Bets For Friday Night
Photo by Scott Kane/Getty Images. Pictured: Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)
- Moneyline picks on Cardinals-Pirates, Braves-Marlins and Twins-Royals headline our top betting predictions for Friday night's baseball slate.
- Find out which side of those games our experts are on below, complete with their break down of the matchups based on MLB odds.
We have another busy day on the Major League Baseball landscape, with 15 games taking place around North America.
Our Action Network handicappers are back again, delivering their four best bets on the loaded slate. Three have found betting value on sides, while another has targeted the total in the showdown between the New York Mets and Colorado Rockies at Coors Field.
That said, let's see where they've landed with their top selections.
MLB Odds & Picks
Cardinals vs. Pirates
DJ James: Zach Thompson might not be producing the results for the Pittsburgh Pirates, but he has been unbelievably unlucky.
Thompson's ERA is almost a point higher than his xERA at 5.47 and 4.54, respectively. Still, these numbers will not fare well against a St. Louis team that has feasted on right-handed pitching in May. Not to mention, the Pittsburgh bullpen has been one of the worst in the league this month, with its 4.50 xFIP and 10.7% walk rate.
Adam Wainwright will go for the Cardinals. The 40-year-old is having yet another sharp season with a 3.89 xERA and sub-30% Hard Hit Rate. He's only allowing opponents to average 87 MPH off the bat as well. Pittsburgh has been below average against righties this month at a 90 wRC+ mark.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have hovered around a .430 SLG percentage, ranking seventh in baseball with a 116 wRC+. They have six batters over the .340 xwOBA mark, making up most of the batting order. They should take care of business against Thompson, who although unlucky is still subpar, especially compared to Wainwright.
Take St. Louis on the moneyline at -150 and play it to -175 odds. There still remains value on the Cardinals side of this betting line.
Braves vs. Marlins
Charlie DiSturco: I have been a consistent fader of Charlie Morton in 2022 and this spot is no different.
The Marlins welcome the Braves for a three-game series, with left-hander Trevor Rogers taking the mound in the opener against the 38-year-old Morton.
Since his return from a broken leg in last year's World Series, Morton has lost a step. It's not a surprise considering his age, but he's generating way less swings and misses and his normal putout pitch — the curveball — hasn't been as effective.
Morton's xERA (4.67) and xFIP (4.83) sit around his actual ERA, meaning there's no indication of positive regression for the righty. Opponents have a .271 xBA, which is a career-worst, and he ranks in the bottom 20 percent of walk rate.
Opposite him is the 24-year-old Rogers, who I am looking to back over the next few starts. Despite a 4.45 ERA, his xERA is a half-run lower at 3.93 and his FIP sits around 3.8 overall.
Rogers has struggled to strand runners, but he's been forcing plenty of soft contact, which is a good sign that things should regress toward the mean positively for the southpaw.
Tack on the fact that the Marlins offense sees a significant upgrade both at home and against right-handed pitching, and this is the perfect underdog to back.
Florida should be able to get to Morton early and ride Rogers en route to a win. Bet the host down to even money.
Twins vs. Royals
Jules Posner: People are really loving the Twins, and rightfully so, but this seems like a trap game.
After taking the series against the Oakland A's, the Twins travel to Kansas City to take on the Royals. The Twins send Devin Smeltzer to the mound, who can be a fine spot starter, but he struggles on the road. Over his career, Smeltzer has a 6.28 road ERA with a 6.36 FIP.
Opposing him is Daniel Lynch, who seems to have grown since his 2021 debut. Over 10 home innings, Lynch has a 2.70 ERA and a 4.10 FIP. In a small sample, these numbers aren't great, considering the quality of the opponents he faced in his two home starts (Yankees and Twins), but are respectable numbers.
While the Royals don't have a prolific offense, as they're eighth in team wRC+ against LHP at home over the past few weeks. That might be overlooked due to their overall offensive struggles at home.
The Twins have been excellent on the road against LHP over that same time span, but did struggle against Oakland's lefties in their last series in Oakland. The Athletics' venue has similar hitting environment to Kaufman Stadium.
Look for the Kansas City to jump on Devin Smeltzer and take its moneyline as long as it stays in the plus money.
Mets vs. Rockies
Editor's Note: Inclement weather has forced this game to be postponed.
Editor's Note: Inclement weather has forced this game to be postponed.
William Boor: Coors Field is never a stranger to high-scoring contests and I'm hoping to see exactly that when the Rockies host the Mets.
The Rockies are just 2-4 on the current home stand, but their offense has scored at least five runs in all six games, including a pair of 10-run performances.
Meanwhile, the Mets have scored 18 runs over the past two days, averaging 4.63 runs per game on the road . Neither team will be throwing its ace in this matchup, with Carlos Carrasco taking the ball for New York and German Marquez getting the start for Colorado.
Carrasco has pitched to a 3.73 ERA this season, but has given up 11 runs over 16 innings in three starts on the road. Meanwhile, Marquez has given up at least three earned runs in six of his seven starts. It doesn't seem likely either of these starts will pitch deep into the game, which is good news for the over.
Both bullpens are prone to giving up runs, which could help us cash this bet in the later innings. The Mets relievers rank 11th with a 3.43 ERA and the Rockies bullpen (5.30 ERA) is the worst in the league. A total of 10 always looks a bit high at first glance, but Coors Field is baseball's best hitters park and there have been 10 or more runs scored in 15 of the Rockies' 22 home games.
Oddsmakers at Caesars have the over sitting at +100, so if you can get this at plus money, then that's ideal. Either way, play it to 10.5 runs.
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