Giants vs Dodgers MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Alex Cobb’s Regression Lends Value to San Francisco (Wednesday, September 7)
Harrison Barden/Colorado Rockies/Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Cobb
- The Giants are heavy road underdogs on Wednesday afternoon against the Dodgers.
- Los Angeles sends Clayton Kershaw to the mound while San Francisco counters with Alex Cobb.
- Jules Posner breaks down the matchup and offers up a best bet.
Giants vs. Dodgers Odds
|Time||4:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers will wrap up their three-game series on Wednesday afternoon at Dodger Stadium. The Giants’ playoff hopes are all but dead, but they do have a good opportunity to… well, the Dodgers have pretty much run away with the top playoff seed in the National League.
On the other hand, things could get interesting in the series finale between these storied rivals. Alex Cobb and Clayton Kershaw will face off in what could end up being a pitchers’ duel.
Despite going through a tough stretch, the Giants still would like to make a statement against their rivals and close out this series on a high note.
Cobb and the Giants Are Due for Regression
The San Francisco Giants have had a disappointing season, but a disappointing season can be improved upon by beating the Dodgers. While a cursory glance at the numbers may not look great, the Giants actually have a puncher’s chance in Wednesday’s matchup.
The Giants’ offense has the sixth-highest wRC+ in the league against left-handed pitching on the road over the past month. Their offense has been relatively disappointing, but they seem to have found a groove recently with their platoon squad against LHPs, and it’s been working.
It is also well documented that Alex Cobb is one of the least lucky pitchers in MLB. His 5.06 road ERA compared to his 3.11 road FIP are a testament to that lack of luck. Cobb is due for some positive regression, but the Dodgers may not be the best team to positively regress against.
Will Kershaw and the Dodgers Stay Hot at Home?
The Dodgers have been in a little bit of a slump offensively recently. And by slump, I mean they are outside of the top five in the league in something for a certain stretch — which is rare.
The Dodgers are only seventh in team wRC+ against RHP over the past two weeks. Clearly, they are doomed.
Clayton Kershaw gets the ball, and he continues to be one of the best in the game when he’s healthy. This season, he’s posted a 2.83 ERA at home with a 2.93 FIP. Old reliable has continued to be old and reliable in 2022.
However, Kershaw has not pitched particularly well against the Giants at home over the past three seasons. Since 2020, Kershaw has given up four or more runs to the Giants in three of six outings.
While the San Francisco Giants are sitting at +220 on the moneyline at FanDuel, they have not been a strong team as an underdog this season. The Giants have struggled to pull off upsets because of their poor bullpen this season.
The ‘pen has struggled to keep the Giants in close games all season, and that’s a reason why the Giants are such heavy underdogs for the full game.
The value for the Giants’ first five-inning moneyline does seem like a worthwhile risk on Wednesday. It’s currently priced at +195, and although Cobb may not be the most inspiring pitcher to back in this spot, the Giants are still a capable team with a propensity for knocking Kershaw around in Los Angeles.
This is a volatile pick, but the value is definitely worth the risk. As long as the Giants’ first-five moneyline sits around +200, roll the dice. The numbers suggest they have a pretty good chance to pull it off, and there’s also room for a push.
Pick: Giants First 5 Moneyline (+195)