Thursday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Giants vs. Mets: Fade Pitchers With Wind Blowing Out at Citi Field
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Yastrzemski of the San Francisco Giants.
- The Mets are slight home favorites on Thursday against the Giants.
- With the wind blowing out from the infield, the batters should have an edge.
- Check out Doug Ziefel's analysis and pick below.
Giants vs. Mets Odds
|Time||1:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
After the Mets swept the series-opening doubleheader, the Giants fought their way back into the series behind another dominant outing by Carlos Rodon. Now the Giants will be looking to escape with a split of the series.
However, it will be no easy task as Carlos Carrasco will toe the slab for the Mets. His resurgence seems apparent, although the Giants lineup is a step up in competition from his first two opponents of 2022.
Opposing “Cookie” Carrasco will be Anthony DeSclafani, who seemed to put it together upon arriving in San Francisco in 2021. His start to this season has not exactly gone to plan as he’s bent but has managed to not break in his first two starts.
On top of all the offensive intrigue in this matchup, Mother Nature may play a role here as there will be strong winds blowing out to left-center field, which may only help our angle.
Giants Poised to Strike Early
Carlos Carrasco is a man with many interesting splits; however, the most glaring one is his trouble in the first inning. Last season, his early game struggles hit rock bottom as he had a 13.50 ERA in the first inning.
While he has flashed some of the stuff that made him one of the best in baseball at one time, the only run he’s surrendered this year came in the first inning against the Nationals. That run pushed his career first-inning ERA to 4.85.
The top of the Giants’ order has made a ton of hard contact so far this season. Mike Yastrzemski, Joc Pederson, and Darin Ruf all have Hard-Hit Rates over 50 percent, and the man between them, Brandon Belt, has the highest slugging percentage in the majors since 2020.
What has seemingly made the difference for Carrasco through two starts is his increased usage and overall effectiveness of his changeup. He’s throwing it two percent more than he did last year, and that may even tick up given the 44 percent Whiff Rate on the pitch.
While Carrasco may be tempted to wield his newfound weapon, he should do so cautiously. This Giants team does not have a ton of swing and miss in their lineup, and many of their hitters are adept at driving pitches low in the zone, particularly their lefties.
Mets to Amplify DeSclafani’s Struggles
After a solid first season by the bay, DeSclafani has not looked like the same guy as last year through two starts. He has only managed to go eight and one-thirds innings through his first two outings as he has not missed many bats.
DeSclafani has surrendered 13 hits in his eight-plus innings of work, and the majority of those hits have been hard.
His 42.9 percent Hard-Hit Rate and average Exit Velocity of 91.4 mph are alarming for someone whose career Hard-Hit Rate is just under 37 percent, and his career Exit Velocity is 88.9. However, that is not where the red flags stop.
In addition to all the solid contact, the majority of that contact has resulted in fly balls. So far, this is the only time in his career where DeSclafani has produced more flyballs than any other result.
The flyballs are directly attributed to the jump in Launch Angle allowed as his average through this season is around 18 degrees, although he has hovered around 12 degrees for his career. That jump in degrees is much closer to the optimal angle for home runs, and with 16 mph winds blowing out of Citi Field, fly balls may just blow right on out.
The men on the mound have defined this series, but the bats are primed to wake up in the finale. Unfortunately, Carrasco’s early success is only a sign of regression, and it could come fast considering the bats he will face in the early going of this matchup.
On the other hand, the Mets have plenty of power in their lineup to not only hit the ball hard but get the ball in the air and, with any luck, they may have a few blow out for them.
While the first five total is certainly worth a look, I’m going to attack the full game total as the wind will continue to pick up as the game goes along and will be trouble for whoever is toeing the slab.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs
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