Giants vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Why Ace Aaron Nola Will Snap Philadelphia’s Losing Streak (Wednesday, June 1)
Justin Berl/Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola.
- The Phillies are home favorites on Wednesday as they look to avoid a sweep against the Giants.
- With ace Aaron Nola on the mound, should you trust the Phillies in this spot?
- Charlie DiSturco breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Giants vs. Phillies Odds
|Time||6:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The slumping Philadelphia Phillies look to avoid a sweep and end a five-game skid against the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night.
The Phillies turn to ace Aaron Nola while the Giants match with their best arm in Carlos Rodon.
Can the Phillies bounce back at Citizens Bank Park and put a stop to their recent struggles, or will San Francisco continue to roll?
Will Rodon Continue His Strong Play for the Giants?
While Carlos Rodon’s ERA sits at 3.60, there’s no cause for concern.
Aside from the eight-run beatdown by St. Louis a couple weeks ago, Rodon has given up more than two runs just once. It’s near-impossible for the southpaw to replicate his 2021 season, but his advanced metrics still grade out incredibly well.
For starters, his xERA (3.02) is over a half-run lower than his ERA (3.60), and his FIP is all the way down to 2.62.
And despite a .226 xBA, opponents have a BABIP of .328 against Rodon, a near-unsustainable number over the course of a full season.
Since joining San Francisco, Rodon has become a two-pitch pitcher, relying on a fastball-slider combo. He’s completely axed the changeup from his arsenal and throws the curveball just six percent of the time.
There are few left-handers with the caliber of Rodon, and advanced metrics show that he remains an elite arm, and that 2021 was not a fluke.
After Rodon exits, things could get sticky for San Francisco. The Giants have the fourth-worst bullpen ERA in MLB. Yes, even worse than the Phillies despite their recent woes.
Nola Should Thrive for the Phillies
What’s not to love about Aaron Nola?
I’ve touched on the right-hander before, and he remains one of the pitchers I like to back — both on the moneyline and under — consistently. He’s a positive regression candidate as well, with his underlying metrics near-elite.
Nola’s xERA (2.82) and xFIP (2.68) both sit significantly lower than his actual ERA of 3.56. His Walk Rate is at a career-low, and he’s holding opponents to a .212 xBA.
He’s changed his approach on the mound, relying on his fastball less and sinker more. Last season, opponents hit .265 off his fastball. This year? It’s halved to .130.
We’ve seen what Nola can do — he enters fresh off an 8 1/3 inning, one-run shutdown of Atlanta — and I’d expect similar success over the next few weeks from the 28-year-old.
It’s also important to note that the Phillies do draw a lefty, which has been their bread and butter. The offense ranks fourth in isolated power and seventh in wOBA versus southpaws.
This might be the most entertaining game on the slate. We get two of MLB’s top arms in a pitcher’s duel, both of which are due for positive regression in the coming weeks.
There are two ways I’m looking to play this game.
The first is biting the bullet and backing the Phillies on the moneyline. I know the bullpen has blown three straight games in extra innings, but I think Nola holds the slight edge in this matchup.
Tack on the fact that the Phillies face a lefty — where they are best — and I think they should be able to get to Rodon a lot easier than San Francisco’s offense against Nola.
In a game that’s priced nearly at a PK, I think Philadelphia holds value. The Phillies would be much heavier favorites if it weren’t for their recent meltdowns.
The second way I’m looking to play this game is by taking an under. I’ve already outlined why both pitchers should see positive regression in the coming weeks, and I think Wednesday is a perfect opportunity for both pitchers to find success.
Back Nola and the Phillies to get the job done and end their five-game skid in a low-scoring bout.
Pick: Phillies ML (-120), bet to (-130) | Under 8