Giants vs. Tigers Odds & Prediction: Early Betting Value on Detroit
Nic Antaya/Getty Images. Pictured: Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal.
Giants vs. Tigers Odds
-110 / -110
-110 / 110
It feels like San Francisco is continually underappreciated. The Giants are the least talked about team holding a playoff spot, currently tied with Arizona for the second wild card spot and second in the division.
However, the Giants come into Monday afternoon following losses in five straight games, most recently getting swept by the lowly Nationals. The offense went ice cold in Washington and will need to pick up in a hurry for a quick trip to Detroit.
The Tigers are certainly in the bottom half of the league but have been a little better than people expected. At 45-54, Detroit isn’t out of the running to win the division given how poor the AL Central is. They are 6-4 since the All-Star break and will have their ace on the mound Monday.
These teams were originally supposed to have the day off today but instead will play a quick matinee game as a makeup of a rained-out contest on April 16. Detroit gets to stay home after a win against the Padres, while a disappointed Giants squad heads to Detroit on their way home from Washington D.C.
An afternoon baseball game is every gambler’s dream and something we don’t usually get on a Monday. So, let’s dive in and see where the betting value lies between San Francisco and Detroit in a Monday matinee.
Veteran Ross Stripling will get the start for San Francisco and he has been pretty consistent this year. Stripling has allowed at least two runs in eight of his nine starts, pitching to a 5.92 ERA.
The Giants have used Stripling out of the bullpen and as part of the rotation, and he has been slightly better as a starter. He has a 5.45 ERA when getting the ball first and a 7.24 ERA when used in relief. His overall xERA is a tick better at 5.49, but still nothing to write home about.
Stripling ranks in the bottom 10% of the league in xERA, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and barrel rate. It’s not all bad though, as he does sit in the top 10% of the league in walk rate. So, he doesn’t allow many free passes — just hits, home runs, and hard contact.
Offensively, the Giants are a team without superstars but have solid production throughout the lineup. They rank 17th in wRC+ and 13th in xwOBA. Eight of the regular starters have a wRC+ of at least 100, led by the breakout seasons of Wilmer Flores and LaMonte Wade Jr. Flores has a wRC+ of 137, tied with Mike Trout.
Detroit was dealt a tough blow when Tarik Skubal was shut down last August and required flexor tendon surgery that would affect the start of his 2023 season. He was having a career-best season, posting a 3.52 ERA with an above-average strikeout rate.
He worked hard to come back this season and was brilliant in his debut on July 4. The Tigers are keeping Skubal on a pitch limit to ease him in, but Skubal racked up six strikeouts without allowing a hit through his first four innings of work. He posted another scoreless outing in his second start before blowing up last week.
He is still working his way back and has yet to pitch more than four innings. However, he has a 2.94 xERA, and his 29.2% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, and .269 xwOBA would all be career highs.
The most promising part of Skubal’s return is his velocity. His fastball is up to 95.7 mph on average and has reached 98 mph as many times as it did all of last season.
It was a brutal start to the year at the plate for Detroit, but things have been better lately. The Tigers have been the second unluckiest team in the league based on xwOBA differential. They have a team wOBA of .292 but an xwOBA of .312.
Unlike the depth of the Giants, Detroit has just four players with a wRC+ over 100: Riley Greene (131), Kerry Carpenter (125), Matt Vierling (106), and Jake Rogers (102). Greene has been great since the All-Star break and Spencer Torkelson is finally getting going, clubbing three home runs last week.
Giants vs. Tigers Betting Pick
San Francisco’s offense has gone ice cold lately. Over the last 30 days, the Giants rank 28th in the league with a wRC+ over just 76. They are just 29th in wOBA. San Francisco has averaged just 3.3 runs per game during July.
Over the last month, Detroit has actually been the better team offensively, but it’s always scary to back the Tigers against a right-handed pitcher. They have managed just a 73 wRC+ against righties over the last 30 days
However, both teams will be in their weaker split and the Giants are even worse against left-handed pitchers. San Francisco has a 65 wRC+ against southpaws over the last month, the worst of any team in the league.
Even if you want to call the offenses a wash, Detroit has a sizable advantage in starting pitching. Skubal has future ace potential, and even coming off a rough outing, his 2.94 xERA shows his upside. Stripling is nothing more than a back of the rotation arm with a 5.49 xERA.
The only concern is with the Tigers continuing to keep Skubal on a pitch count as he eases back from injury. He has pitched only four innings in each of his first three starts, and the longer this game goes to the bullpens, the more the advantage shifts to the Giants' favor.
I’ll back Detroit early with Skubal on the mound and take them to win the first five innings at -150.
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